EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 6, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at the very bottom of their range after diverging comments from the ECB and the FOMC sent the dollar up and the euro down. ECB Chief Draghi has been hitting the speaking circuit supporting the eurozone economy with stimulus come December, while Janet Yellen testified yesterday to the US Congress indicating that the US economy was doing well and that the Fed would start raising interest rates in December. The euro is trading at 1.0863. The dollar surged to a three-month high and European and Asian stock markets dipped on Thursday as expectations hardened of the first rise in U.S. interest rates in almost a decade coming next month.

Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen and two senior colleagues pointed to December as a “live possibility” for a rise, adding to signs that the U.S. central bank is again on the verge of moving after months of vacillating over the domestic and global economy’s ability to deal with higher borrowing costs.

An adverse reaction from global markets to September’s policy meeting put the Fed off raising rates when many had expected it to, but there have been some signs this time that investors have grown more sanguine about the likely fallout.

European stocks, after gaining initially on another batch of upbeat corporate results, were down 0.1-0.3 percent.

The crunch now will be U.S. data over the next few weeks. U.S. data on Wednesday supported Yellen’s guarded optimism, with private employers hiring steadily in October and a jump in new orders buoying activity in the services sector. Influential non-farm payroll numbers are due on Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 6, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction