EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD fell 20 points to trade at 1.2634 after German Industrial Production missed expectations by a wide margin.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD fell 20 points to trade at 1.2634 after German Industrial Production missed expectations by a wide margin. Germany is the largest most important economy in the eurozone and has been have significant problems as of late. The US dollar recovered a few points after tumbling on Monday after touching a multiyear high on jobs data. Traders are now focused on the FOMC release due on Wednesday. The euro exchanged above the 1.26-dollar mark in Tuesday’s early trading. The common currency stood at 1.2623 against the dollar, but analysts stressed that reversal in the U.S. currency’s strong uptrend was the result of profit-taking on short-term positions. The USD lost most of its gains yesterday on what can only be described as profit taking after the huge moves we see on Friday and some concerns on the timing issues of the next FED rate hike. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s dilemma over when to raise borrowing costs wasn’t made any clearer by conflicting employment data on Oct. 3.

While the U.S. added 248,000 workers and the jobless rate declined to a six-year low in September, the participation rate, which measures the number of Americans employed or looking for a job as a share of the working-age population, fell to the lowest level since February 1978. Average hourly earnings were unchanged.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	NZIER Business Confidence (Q3)	19%		32%
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Oct)	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
AUD	RBA Rate Statement
EUR	German Industrial Production	-4.0%	-1.5%	1.6%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%
GBP	Manufacturing Production	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
CAD	Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)		-13.0%	11.8%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)		4.71M	4.67M

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Adjusted Current Acct.		0.19T	0.10T
JPY	Current Account n.s.a.		0.198T	0.417T
CNY	HSBC Services PMI (Sep)		53.8	54.1
JPY	BoJ Monthly Report
CAD	Housing Starts (Sep)		196.0K	192.4K
USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes