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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 30, 2013 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD EUR/USD started the European session little changed, but the pair started to grind lower and then turned upward
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD EUR/USD started the European session little changed, but the pair started to grind lower and then turned upward after Mr Draghi’s speech and on positive business confidence numbers. The shared currency gained 46 points to trade at 1.3535. The ongoing weakness in M3 money supply and especially lending might have played some role, as it is one of the concerns the ECB has and it might influence policy decisions. So, it is a euro negative. ECB speakers brought no new info. During the US session, the pair initially held a sideways range. Initial claims were much lower than expected, but it couldn’t really give the dollar upside momentum.
The US Senate has scheduled a vote today to pass an emergency spending bill , shortening its debate in an attempt to work out a deal with the House of Representatives before a Monday night deadline when government funds will be exhausted. House Speaker Boehner warned however that House Republicans will not accept the temporary government spending bill.
The single currency was subject to some jittery trading yesterday as fears of political instability in Italy re-emerged as Renato Brunetta, a close aide to PDL party leader Silvio Berlusconi, said that support could be removed from Italian PM Enrico Letta’s coalition government if Berlusconi’s ban from office is enforced. Brunetta denied that Berlusconi himself had instigated the move; rather she argued it was a question of morality: “There was no proposal for a mass resignation. We have only asked each parliamentarian to reflect on and decide according to his or her conscience.”
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 27, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 27 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
0.2% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tokyo CPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.9% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.7% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
KOF Leading Indicators |
1.53 |
|
1.47 |
|
1.37 |
||
|
|
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian Quarterly Unemployment Rate |
9.9% |
|
10.0% |
|
10.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
SEK |
|
|
Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.30% |
|
0.30% |
|
-0.70% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
4.50% |
|
|
|
4.46% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.0% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
1.5% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
|
|
78.0 |
|
76.8 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 30 |
02:45 |
CNY |
|
51.2 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
54.0 |
53.0 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 30 09:10 Norway
0ct 01 00:30 Japan
Oct 01 09:15 Austria
Oct 01 09:30 Belgium
Oct 01 14:30 UK
Oct 02 09:10 Sweden
Oct 03 08:30 Spain
Oct 03 08:50 France
Oct 03 09:30 UK
Oct 03 11:00 Norway
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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