GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Continues to Threaten a Breakout

GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 23.05.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday but then turned around to rally quite significantly as the market looks like it is still trying to break out above the resistance barrier. The ¥172.50 level continues to loom large in this market, and if we could break above it, that obviously could be construed as a bit of a bullish event.

Short-term pullbacks at this point should continue to see buyers enter the marketplace, as we have been in such a massive uptrend lately. The Japanese yen will continue to struggle due to the fact that the Bank of Japan is in the midst of quantitative easing, as they practice yield curve control in the 10-year JGB. Remember, Tokyo will continue to fight higher interest rates, with a ceiling of 50 basis points in that bond. In other words, they will step into the market and buy bonds to keep rates down. The only way they can do that is to print more yen, flooding the market with that currency.

On the other side of the equation, you have the Bank of England, which remains extraordinarily tight, and is fighting inflation. This sets up a bit of a perfect trade, as it is not only so momentum driven, but there is also a huge interest rate differential between the 2 currencies. Essentially, this is the old styled “carry trade,” perhaps on steroids. With this, I think that plenty of people will continue to step into this market and buy it every time it dips. If we can break above the ¥172.50 level, that is very likely that the market will go looking toward the ¥175 level over the longer term. Underneath, the ¥170 level should continue to offer plenty of support and would be thought of as the short term floor in the market. Because of this, a continued “buy on the dips” strategy will probably tend to work out better than anything else at this point. I would expect a lot of noise but at the end of the day, this is a bullish market for reason.

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