British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis
The British pound has collapsed during the week, especially during Friday as we have seen massive moves in the bond markets. As a general rule, I believe that the market is probably going to have to see the occasional bounce, but it looks like it may have further to go. Regardless, if I were to start buying the yen related pairs, in other words if I were to start shorting yen, I would not do it here. I believe that the British pound is so sick at the moment that you cannot trust it.
If the Japanese yen suddenly starts to pick up a lot of momentum, perhaps in some type of safety bid, this pair is going to be absolutely eviscerated. At that point, my positions will be as follows: short GBP/JPY, short NZD/JPY, short AUD/JPY, and short ZAR/JPY. The Japanese yen is oversold by most accounts, but the Bank of Japan continues to fight interest rate so that is the real problem. I do think that we are more likely than not going to continue to see a lot of ugliness, so I think this is a pair worth watching.
Do not forget there is a bit of a “risk on/risk off” type of attitude to be had in this pair, so that is also a component that must be paid close attention to. Currently, we are most decidedly “risk off”, which of course favors the Japanese yen under normal circumstances. The question now is whether or not the Bank of Japan is going to continue to support its own currency, because if it does we could go back to the old correlations.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.