The British pound has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday as it looks like we are ready to break down below the 1.25 level. If we do, then the market should go lower than that, perhaps reaching the 1.22 level.
The British pound has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday to show weakness, but we are still very much in a consolidation area. The 1.25 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will pay attention. If we can break down the area just below that, then the market is likely to open up and move down to the 1.22 level.
On the upside, the 50 Day EMA sits just above the 1.2650 level and is dropping. Ultimately, this is a market that will show dynamic resistance. If we were to break above there, then it changes a lot of things, perhaps sending the market back to the 1.30 handle. The inflation numbers (CPI) numbers coming out on Friday in the United States will have a massive effect on what happens next, and I think at this point we have basically been going back and forth and trying to figure out where to go next. Ultimately, this is a market that’s in a downtrend and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to sellers every time we rally, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the market does it right away.
If we break down below the 1.22 level, then it’s likely that we would go looking to reach the 1.20 handle, an area that has a lot of psychology and historical importance attached to it. I prefer fading rallies, but I do recognize that if we break above the 50 Day EMA, there might be a nice short-term rally that you can take advantage of as well.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.