The British pound rallied a bit at the open for the week, but then broke down to show signs of weakness as we plowed towards the 1.23 level before bouncing again. In other words, this market is still grinding just below a major figure.
The British pound initially tried to break above the 1.25 level but then sliced much lower yet again. The 1.23 level of course offers quite a bit of support, and we did bounce from there as per usual for the last month or so. At this point, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, then we probably go down to the 1.22 handle, possibly the 1.20 level after that. Looking at this pair, it does look like we are running out of momentum, but the question now is whether or not we can never get a weekly candlestick that closes above the 1.25 handle? If we do, then it is likely that the market probably continues to go much higher. Having said that, we have yet to be able to do that and one has to think it is only a matter of time before we run out of momentum and rollover.
With the British pound representing an economy that has been shut down so drastically, it would make sense that the British pound continues to suffer. Furthermore, the UK economy is lagging the US economy heading into this, and the Bank of England is likely to do more quantitative easing going forward based upon the most recent statements. With that being the case, I believe it is only a matter of time before the market rolls over, but the resiliency must be paid attention to. If we get that weekly close above 1.25, then I will start to rethink the entire process.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.