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Barry Norman
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD followed global cues, trading fairly flat at 1.6117 up just a few pips at this writing. Sterling is flat to the USD, outperforming most of the majors as movement conveys a relatively muted reaction to yesterday’s post-S&P announcement decline.  S&P has changed its outlook for the UK’s AAA credit rating to negative, citing low growth and official commitment to austerity as two of the major concerns going forward. S&P was the last of the three major rating agencies to have shifted their outlook to negative, following Moody’s (Feb 2012) and Fitch (March 2012), though all three maintain their AAA ratings. The FX impact of this shift suggests a reduction in the support previously afforded to GBP.

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FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.6

 

45.0 

 

44.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

47.2 

 

46.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

46.6 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

0.00% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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