Gold and Silver Forecast: Mid-Year Lows Ahead Before the Next Major Bull Run

A reported $30 billion Japanese intervention to support the yen triggered sharp weakness in the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, sending volatility through currency markets and precious metals.

Gold and mining stocks now appear vulnerable to a May rollover as momentum fades, seasonal weakness develops, and rising energy prices add pressure to the sector. Current cycle analysis points toward mid-year lows.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching a major technical test at its 200-day moving average, raising concerns that the recent rally may be losing steam and increasing the risk of a broader decline into a potential October 4-year cycle low.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 168.

US Dollar

Wednesday’s weakness in the dollar was the result of further currency intervention in support of the Yen. Authorities injected another $30 billion into the market, on top of the $34 billion from last week. Continued intervention could keep downside pressure on the dollar.

Gold

Gold is challenging the 50-day EMA. I continue to expect prices to roll over in May and decline toward $4,400 as we head into mid-year. A return of hostilities in Iran remains a possibility that could trigger the next round of weakness.

Silver

Silver has moved back above its 50-day EMA. I expect resistance between $85.00 and $90.00. A mid-year low below $70.00 remains my base case.

Platinum

I expect platinum to roll over in May and fall below the 200-day moving average. A sustained breakout above $2,400 would challenge this outlook.

GDX

Miners formed a bearish candle as prices tested the 50-day moving average. I expect prices to roll over below the April high and slip beneath the 200-day moving average as we head into mid-year.

GDXJ

Juniors would need to close decisively above the April high to support further upside. Otherwise, I’m looking for prices to slip below the 200-day moving average over the next one to three months.

SILJ

Silver juniors could exceed the April high, but I see stiff resistance around $38.00. Overall, I expect a move below the 200-day moving average to signal the next accumulation point.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is forming a swing high after nearing the 200-day moving average. Historically, in bear markets, prices declined 60% or more after testing the 200-day. A 60% drop from here would put prices south of $35,000, which would require a very aggressive decline over the next five months.

Take Away

After record-breaking rallies in 2025, precious metals are taking a breather as markets consolidate. The broader uptrend is expected to resume after a pullback into mid-year.

Our longer-term outlook remains strongly bullish, with gold projected to climb above $10,000 by the end of the decade, while silver could surge into the $300–$500 range over the same period.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.