Gold Price Analysis – Gold Gives Back Some of the Gains

Gold

The gold market has initially fell a bit during the session here on Thursday but has turned around a little bit. We still see some negativity, but I think ultimately what we are looking at here is a market that’s just simply dancing around the 50-day EMA.

The interest rate situation of course is something you’ll have to pay close attention to with the 4.30% level being important in the US 10-year Note. So, with this, we’re looking at this market through the lens of whether or not rates are going up or down.

Furthermore, we have to keep in mind that although there is a ceasefire in the works, the reality is everything in the Middle East is still on a knife’s edge. So, with that being the situation, there will be a lot of concerns.

Technical Analysis and Market Hesitation

You can see that during the Wednesday session we did try to rally pretty significantly. We broke above the 50-day EMA, but the candlestick for the day ended up being a shooting star, which suggests that there is some hesitation at this point. And there isn’t exactly a clear momentum driven move that is going to be easy to make.

So, from a technical analysis standpoint, even though there are some reasons to think that gold should go higher, there is some hesitation here and that is something worth paying attention to.

The $4600 level below I believe is support. If we were to break down below there, that would be a very negative turn of events. If we can jump back above the 50-day EMA perhaps we will head to $5000, but again we need to see those rates drop in America.