Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – February 15, 2019 Forecast

Gold futures are trading higher as investors continue to react to yesterday’s bearish U.S. Retail Sales data and expectations the Fed will continue to be patient with rate hikes due to the slowing U.S. economy. Lower inflation in China could also be supporting prices since this news reaffirms its slowing economy.

At 13:31 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1319.60, up $5.70 or +0.43%.

Despite the early strength, gold buyers are being cautious because there are some who believe that yesterday’s retail sales data may have been skewed by the government shutdown. To some, the data doesn’t mesh with the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report from earlier in the month.

Traders are also paying close attention to today’s U.S. economic reports. Stronger-than-expected data could send prices lower later in the session. Higher Treasury yields and increased appetite for risk could also put pressure on prices.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. This reversed yesterday’s change in trend to the downside. This also served as further proof of investor indecision. An earlier move through $1321.70 changed the main trend to up. A move through $1304.70 will change the main trend to down.

The major retracement zone is $1319.70 to $1306.30. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $1331.10 to $1304.70. Its 50% level or pivot is $1317.90. This level is currently acting like support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the April Comex gold futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $1320.10 and the Fibonacci level at $1317.90.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1320.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to extend into the next downtrending Gann angle at $1325.60. Overcoming this angle will likely lead to another downtrending Gann angle at $1328.40. This is the last potential resistance angle before the $1331.10 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1317.90 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the uptrending Gann angle at $1313.50. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $1306.30 and $1304.70 the next likely downside targets.

Basically, the early price action suggests the buying could strengthen over $1320.10 and weaken under $1317.90. In between these levels could produce a choppy, two-sided trade.