Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 2, 2018 Forecast

Gold futures are trading lower but behaving a little better than expected given the stronger U.S. Dollar Index. On Friday, the market closed higher for the first day in five sessions. In the process, it formed a closing price reversal bottom. This is usually the first sign that the buying is becoming greater than the selling at current price levels.

The Dollar Index is trading higher because the weaker Euro is a big influence on its movement. Treasury yields are falling. Stocks are under pressure. If the Euro turns up then give these other factors, I can build a case for higher gold prices today.

At 1136 GMT, August Comex Gold futures are trading $1250.20, down $4.30 or -0.34%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Friday’s closing price reversal bottom signaled a slight shift in momentum to the upside. A trade through $1257.10 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. If this occurs, we could see the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

A trade through $1246.90 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is $1274.40 to $1246.90. If buyers can take out $1257.10 then look for a quick test of its 50% level or pivot at $1260.70.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the August Comex Gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1254.40.

A sustained move under $1254.40 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for sellers to go after $1246.90. Taking out this level will signal a resumption of the downtrend and could trigger an acceleration into the July 7, 2017 main bottom at $1230.70.

A sustained move over $1254.40 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out $1257.10 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target the pivot at $1260.70.

Overtaking $1260.70 could trigger a further rally into another downtrending Gann angle at $1265.00.

Basically, look for a bullish bias to develop on a sustained move over $1257.10, and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $1246.90.