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James Hyerczyk
Gold Chart
Gold Chart

Gold futures are trading lower shortly before the regular session opening after buyers failed to bite on an attempted breakout over key retracement zone resistance. The market was supported earlier by a weaker U.S. Dollar, but rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a Fed rate hike next week helped limit gains.

At 1157 GMT, December Comex Gold futures are trading $1208.90, down $2.30 or -0.20%.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1218.00 will reaffirm the uptrend. This is followed closely by another main top at $1220.70.

A trade through $1197.50 will change the main trend to down. This is followed by additional bottoms at $1192.70 and $1189.50.

The main range is $1244.70 to $1167.10. Its retracement zone at $1205.90 to $1215.10 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the gold market. Earlier in the session, traders rejected a rally to $1215.80, which was essentially a test of the Fibonacci level at $1215.10.

The short-term range is $1167.10 to $1220.70. Its retracement zone at $1193.90 to $1187.60 is support.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1215.10.

A sustained move under $1215.10 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move can generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main 50% level at $1205.90.

Taking out $1205.90 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could drive the market into a downtrending Gann angle at $1201.70. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will likely drive the market into the main bottom at $1197.50, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1193.90.

A sustained move over $1215.10 will signal the presence of buyers. The first target is the uptrending Gann angle at $1217.10. Overtaking this angle will put the market in a position to challenge the main tops at $1218.00 and $1220.70. Taking out these tops will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target angle coming in at $1223.20. This is another trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Basically, we’re looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1215.10 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $1205.90.

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