The direction of the June Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1788.50.
Gold futures are trading higher on Monday as the U.S. Dollar gave back earlier gains and U.S. Treasury yields retreated. The market is now in a position to breakout over a major long-term 50% level.
At 14:04 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1793.90, up $26.20 or +1.48%.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1798.40 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1723.20.
Taking out $1798.40 will turn $1754.60 into a new main bottom.
The long-term trading range is $1464.20 to $2112.70. The market has been trading inside its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $1788.50 to $1711.90 since late February.
After a failed attempt to breakout to the downside through $1711.90 in March, the market is now attempting to breakout to the upside over $1788.50.
The direction of the June Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1788.50.
A sustained move over $1788.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a move into the $1798.40 main top.
Taking out $1798.40 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the February 23 main top at $1817.60 the next major upside target. A sustained move over this level could extend the rally into the February 10 main top at $1858.90.
A sustained move under $1788.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential downside targets coming in at $1776.50, $1760.80 and $1754.60.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.