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David Becker

Gold prices made a timid attempt at a rally on Monday, following a sharp decline on Friday in the wake of the better than expected US jobs numbers. Prices traded in a tight range and formed a doji day which is a sign of indecision. US yields edged slightly lower, which the dollar was nearly unchanged, giving gold traders little room to move the yellow metal. Later this week, traders will need to incorporate US retail sales and inflation figures, which will be carefully watched to see how the consumer is fairing. It appears that the US economy is stronger than expected according to the latest Fed models.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices formed a doji day where the open and close were nearly the same. Prices attempted a weak move higher but were unable to pierce through resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,464. Additional resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average near 1,481. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal reversing the recent rise in the fast stochastic. Medium-term momentum is turning as the MACD histogram prints in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation.

Fed Models Point to Stronger Growth

The Atlanta Fed’s model is showing that the US economy is doing better than anticipated in Q4.  The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates Q4 GDP growth at 2.0% up from 1.5% previously.  This compares to its low for Q4 of 0.3% back on November 15.  The NY Fed’s Nowcast model now has Q4 growth at 0.58% down from 0.77% previously.  It also cut its estimate for Q1 growth to 0.66% from 0.98% previously.  While there appears to be a divergence with the two models, what is clear is that growth is far from negative and a recession.

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