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David Becker

Gold prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday following Tuesday’s slide US dollar moved lower but treasury yields continued to rise. Mortgage applications to purchase a home declined in the latest week despite lower mortgage rates. Gold was buoyed by riskier assets which rebounded on Wednesday following a flip flop by President Trump on a new stimulus bill. Gold implied volatility remains stable hovering near the 22 levels, well above the 2020 lows near 10, but well below the 2020 highs near 36.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher rebounding slightly from Tuesday slide. Prices are hovering just under resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,887. Additional resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,941.   Support is seen near the September lows at 1,848. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal in the middle of the neutral range. Prices continue to remain rangebound.

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New Mortgage Applications Fall

Applications for new home mortgages fell 2% for the week but were 21% higher year over year. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of up to $510,400 slipped to 3.01% from 3.05. In response, refinance application volume, which is most sensitive to weekly rate moves, rose 8% for the week and was 50% higher than a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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