Gold vs. Bitcoin: BTC Could Hit $140K — Can XAUUSD Break $3,400?

Bitcoin (BTC) prices trade above $105,000, reaching a weekly high of $110,600. Short-term price action exhibits volatility, while the long-term trend suggests further upside. Despite the strong volatility, prices remain above $100,000 and appear to be preparing for the next upward move. Moreover, institutional demand via ETFs and custody programs is absorbing supply, helping to keep prices stable.

On the other hand, gold (XAUUSD) prices are consolidating above $3,200 and showing positive price action. The failure to break below $3,200 and continued consolidation between $3,200 and $3,500 increases the likelihood of an upward breakout in the gold market. The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio suggests that both assets are likely to continue higher, with Bitcoin set for a potential surge.

Gold to Bitcoin Ratio Signals Bullish Momentum in Bitcoin

The monthly chart for the gold-to-bitcoin ratio shows a strong bearish trend. The ratio is moving downward and is approaching a key support level of 0.026. May’s monthly candle was strongly bearish, and June is attempting to break below May’s low and move toward 0.026. A break below this level could signal a significant bottom in the ratio and a strong surge in Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Forms Bullish Pattern Near Breakout Zone

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio is also trending upward within an ascending channel. The recent consolidation after the COVID-19 peak has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, with the ratio hovering near the breakout zone around the 35 to 40 area. A break above 40 would likely trigger a move toward the 110 level. This breakout could lead to a strong surge in Bitcoin prices.

The monthly chart for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio also indicates that the ratio is trending upward toward the breakout area marked by the black dotted trendline. Based on previous patterns, the price action over the last four years suggests that a breakout above 40 is likely.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

BTC Eyes Breakout Above 115K as Bullish Patterns Strengthen

Bitcoin prices exhibit strong bullish momentum near the black trendline, specifically in the 105,000 to 115,000 region. A break above 115,000 would likely trigger a strong surge toward the 140,000 region.

The orange circles along the trendline resemble the peaks seen in March and November 2021. However, this time, the formation of a cup pattern, the breakout from a descending broadening wedge, and the emergence of a bullish hammer at the 50-day SMA indicate that a breakout above 115,000 is likely.

BTC Eyes $140k after breakout

The daily chart for Bitcoin also shows that prices are trading above the red line at 105,000. However, the real breakout is expected at 115,000, as indicated in the weekly chart. A break above 115,000 would likely trigger a move toward 140,000 in the coming months. This target is based on the resistance of the descending broadening wedge pattern.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Consolidation Signals Bullish Momentum above $3,400

The weekly chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating at the breakout point of the ascending broadening wedge pattern, indicating bullish momentum. Although the all-time high reached $3,500, the price failed to close at that level.

To confirm a breakout of the ascending broadening wedge, multiple inverted head-and-shoulders patterns have emerged, and the price continues to consolidate above the black trendline. This suggests that prices are likely to continue moving higher.

XAUUSD Levels to Watch

This price consolidation is visible on the weekly chart below, indicating that the price is trading within the $3,200–$3,500 area. Therefore, a break above $3,500 is needed for further upside. Conversely, a break below $3,200 could trigger a move toward $3,000. Notably, the $3,000 level serves as a key support for the current bullish momentum. The short-term price action shows that $3,400 has become the key level for further upside.