Gold vs. Bitcoin: How Fed Cuts and Safe-Haven Demand May Boost XAUUSD

Gold (XAUUSD) has gained strength in recent sessions, breaking above the key $4,050 level and completing a bear trap formation. This move suggests renewed bullish momentum driven by rising investor demand and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. As safe-haven flows intensify in response to economic uncertainty, gold’s stability stands out.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied to $107,000 after repeatedly holding support near $100,000, a sign of easing liquidity pressures. While both assets benefit from dovish monetary signals, gold may be better positioned in the current macro environment. This is due to its lower volatility, historical safe-haven role, and favourable seasonal patterns.

Monetary Policy Outlook Supports Gold and Bitcoin

Markets are now pricing in a 65.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. This is driven by weakening economic data and soft inflation expectations. The chart below shows the 5-year inflation outlook from the University of Michigan survey. The inflation expectations eased to 3.6% in November but remain elevated at historically high levels.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields are consolidating around 4.10%, awaiting fresh signals from upcoming BLS inflation reports.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has reiterated his support for a 50-basis-point cut at the upcoming December 9–10 meeting. However, the elevated long-term inflation expectations at around 3.6% add pressure for a proactive Fed response.

Labour Market Weakness Adds to Fed Pressure

Due to the prolonged federal government shutdown, official job data has been disrupted. This marks the longest shutdown in history, resulting in a second consecutive missed BLS report. Meanwhile, alternative indicators present a mixed picture.

ADP employment change shows modest gains, but layoffs have surged to their highest since 2008.

Moreover, the job openings continue to decline, and consumer confidence in the labour market has weakened.

However, JP Morgan estimates a loss of 35,000 jobs in October, following a 52,000 gain in September. This reinforces signs of a softening economy.

This weakening trend, coupled with rising layoffs and a softer dollar, increases the odds of monetary easing. This environment benefits gold and bitcoin, as investors seek safe-haven assets during periods of economic uncertainty and policy shifts.

Gold vs. Bitcoin – Ratio Breakout Signals Shift Toward Gold

The long-term outlook for gold and bitcoin can be analysed using the gold-to-bitcoin ratio. The chart below shows a breakout above a key resistance level from a descending channel. This breakout suggests that investment is shifting in favour of gold.

Historically, when this ratio peaked in August 2015, bitcoin bottomed, and gold began a strong rally. Similar patterns were observed in March 2020 and December 2022. The current breakout signals renewed interest in the gold market, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the coming months.

This is also supported by the daily chart of Bitcoin, which shows the formation of an ascending broadening wedge pattern, with a rounding top structure developing above the $ 100,000 level. Currently, the price is hovering near this pivotal $100K zone, and a break below it may trigger short-term selling pressure.

While the broader trend remains strongly bullish, increased volatility could lead to a corrective phase before the next leg of the upward move. On the upside, a breakout above $125K would likely signal the start of another substantial rally in Bitcoin prices.

Despite intense volatility in the Bitcoin market, the gold market remains relatively stable. The gold price has maintained a bullish trend in 2024 and 2025. The price has repeatedly formed strong consolidation patterns before resuming its upward trend. The recent consolidation in October 2025 is a potential signal for the next leg up in early 2026.

October and November are typically months of seasonal correction, while December and January are historically strong for gold. A breakout above the $4,400 level would confirm that the consolidation phase has ended. This breakout would also signal that the gold market is preparing for a move toward the $5,000 level.