The gold market has had another choppy week during the past 5 sessions, as Friday has seen a complete turnaround from the poor ADP numbers. With this being the case, gold of course has a lot of volatility, without a whole lot of clarity.
The gold market initially rallied during the trading week, but we have given back a little bit. And now on Friday, we’ve got a better than anticipated jobs number. This, to me, looks like a market that is getting ready to hang around and just chop between the $3,200 level below and the $3,500 level above. Ultimately, I think we’ve got a scenario where traders are just simply trying to figure out what to do next, probably trying to work off a lot of froth. Ultimately, I do think that we go higher. I do think that eventually we get some type of momentum to break above the $3,500 level and possibly open up a move to the $3,800 level.
However, having said that, I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be the easiest move in the world. $3,200 should be a powerful support level, but even if we break down below there and go look into the $3,000 level, I don’t know that things have changed that much. After all, we have a scenario where there is plenty of geopolitical risk out there. And of course, there’s the possibility that central banks around the world will have to continue to cut.
And if that’s the case, we could see gold really take off. The United States is a little bit of an outlier though. It looks like the message and the data is very mixed at the moment. So, we have to recognize that as this is priced in dollars, it will have an outsized influence. All things being equal, think for the time being, you’re going sideways and then eventually higher.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.