Gold (XAUUSD), Silver, Platinum Forecasts – Gold Rallies As U.S. Inflation Rate Misses Estimates

Gold Gains Ground As U.S. Inflation Rate Drops To 3.5%

Gold rebounds as traders focus on inflation data from the U.S. Inflation Rate declined by -0.4% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, Inflation Rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, compared to analyst consensus of 3.8%. Core Inflatoin Rate pulled back from 2.9% to 2.6%, below the analyst estimate of 2.8%.

Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on CPI data. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved towards the 4.21% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.58%. Falling Treasury yields provided material support to gold that pays no interest.

U.S. dollar moved lower against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders reduced bets on dovish Fed. Weaker dollar is bullish for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities.

It should be noted that comments from Fed Chair Warsh put some pressure on gold markets. Warsh said that today’s CPI report did not mean that Fed’s mission was accomplished.

Currently, gold is trying to stay above the support level at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the $4100 level. A move above $4100 will push gold towards the resistance level at $4180 – $4200.

Silver Rebounds As Dollar Pulls Back

Silver rebounds, supported by U.S. inflation data. Gold/silver ratio pulled back towards the 69.00 level, providing additional support to silver markets.

In case silver manages to settle above the $60.00 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, a move below the support at $56.00 – $57.00 will open the way to the test of the next support at $51.00 – $52.00.

Platinum Tests Resistance At $1600 – $1620

Platinum is moving higher amid broad rally in precious metals markets, which was triggered by the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation report. Palladium markets are up by as much as 4.5%, which is bullish for platinum.

Interestingly, traders ignore risks posed by rising oil prices. High oil prices may create material inflationary pressure and force the Fed to be more hawkish. Perhaps, some traders believe that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will calm down. However, it looks that U.S. and Iran are not ready to continue negotiations in the near term. WTI oil climbed above the $79.00 level today, while Brent oil settled above $84.00.

Platinum attempts to settle above the resistance level at $1600 – $1620. This resistance level has already been tested many times and proved its strength. In case platinum settles above $1620, it will head towards the resistance level at $1680 – $1700. A move above the $1700 level will push platinum towards the 50 MA at $1793.

On the support side, platinum needs to pull back below the $1600 level to have a chance to gain additional downside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will head towards the support at $1500 – $1520.

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