Gold is swinging between gains and losses as traders wait for Fed decision, which will be released soon.
Fed is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged, although FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 33.7% probability of a rate hike. Gold traders do not believe in a rate hike, so gold is trying to gain upside momentum ahead of the key event of the week.
Interestingly, gold markets ignored the strong rally in the oil markets. Brent oil is up by +8% as Iran attacked a U.S. base in Jordan. Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders focused on rising oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.33% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries moved towards 4.65%.
U.S. dollar was mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders were not ready for big moves ahead of Fed decision.
From the technical point of view, gold failed to settle below the support at $4020 – $4040 and is trying to settle back above the $4050 level. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the $4100 level. A move above $4100 will open the way to the test of the resistance level at $4180 – $4200.
On the support side, gold needs to settle below the $4020 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, gold will head towards the next support at $3930 – $3950.
Silver gained ground as gold/silver ratio pulled back below the psychologically important 70.00 level. Gold/silver ratio has been moving back and forth in recent trading sessions, boosting silver’s volatility.
A move above the $58.00 level will push silver towards the psychologically important $60.00 level. If silver climbs above $60.00, it will head towards the resistance at $61.00 – $62.00.
On the support side, a successful test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00 will push silver towards the next support level at $51.00 – $52.00.
Platinum continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $1600 – $1620 as traders focus on rising oil prices. The strong rally in the oil market serves as a bearish catalyst for platinum, which is dependent on industrial demand.
That said, platinum has been range-bound in recent trading sessions despite major volatility in the oil markets. Perhaps, Fed decision will provide platinum with a chance to gain momentum and move away from the $1600 level. Palladium markets are down by -0.9%, which is bearish for platinum.
If platinum stays below the $1600 level, it will move towards the support level at $1500 – $1520. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
On the upside, a move above the $1620 level will push platinum towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the $1680 – $1700 range.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.