Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — Gold Tests $4,665 Support, Silver Eyes $82 Breakout?

Gold and Silver Pause for Breath as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Shored Up Focus Turns to Macro

Gold and silver were rangebound on May 11, 2026, on the news that the tentative U.S.-Iran deal continues to hold with some traffic resumed by tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz, now in the second month of its existence. That deal removed a lot of the risk premium the trade in both metals gained in the months of March and April.

On its own, central bank demand will continue to support gold at a minimum as the People’s Bank of China keeps purchasing its central bank metal well beyond the streak of 17 purchases in a row, along with other emerging markets. Silver, on the other hand, with a strong industrial link, is still balancing its safe-haven status against its global supply deficit.

The industrial sector for silver will remain robust in spite of the fact energy prices continue to remain low as the global industrial sector is still strong, with continued demand from the solar, electronics, and electric vehicle sectors. With peace established for the time being, we will wait to see what the U.S. inflation and Feds will say when they are released soon. In the long-term, gold and silver remain as solid inflation hedges, even while the geopolitical status in the Middle East remains the key to watch in the weeks ahead as we wait to see whether the situation continues.

Gold Spot Tests $4,665 Support – Blue Descending Channel Pressure

Gold Spot trades at $4,664.95 on 4h chart, testing the lower blue descending channel line off rejection from $4,670 red MA. It has formed a few green bullish hammers, but still not able to move past the immediate supply above the $4,680 level. Respect can still be observed at the structure of the lower highs from the April highs along with distribution wicks being observed. The Fib retracement from the May high shows that next downside target levels will be at the $4,652 and down to $4,608, 38.2% level.

Currently, RSI is still at 48 and momentum is flat with no bullish divergences. There has been no change to the resistance of $4,680 volume profile level which has now turned down. Structure still remains bearish as long as the price stays below $4,715 and remains within the down channel of last few weeks.

Trade Idea: Sell at $4,664 with target price at $4,608, stop loss at $4,680.

Silver Spot Holds $80.33 – Rising Channel Breakout Momentum

Silver Spot trades at $80.33 on 4h chart, currently riding the upper white ascending trend line with strong green candles clearing the red MA around $80.00. It has formed some higher highs after the $78.26 Fib support level was successfully defended to signal bullish continuation from the inside of the rising channel from early May. RSI has now risen above 58 indicating a positive momentum without yet going into overbought.

Next major levels of targets for upside will be at the $82.51 and next $84.93, the upper target levels of the white channel extension. Volume still remains positive with strong buying pressure absorbing every price dip. Structure now turns bullish and can continue to be bullish as long as it can stay above $78.70 while not making any lower range lows.

Trade Idea: Buy at $80.33 with target price at $82.51, stop loss at $79.50.