Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Below $100, Brent at $103, NatGas at $2.79 — More Downside Ahead?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Steady as Ceasefire Holds

On Monday, May 11, 2026, crude prices largely held flat, as the conditional US-Iran truce, now more than a month old, appeared to hold firm and tanker shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resumed somewhat. The truce has gradually reduced the risk premium which had been driving extreme volatility in crude prices throughout the March-April timeframe, thereby encouraging market participants to focus more on fundamental price drivers.

WTI and Brent have moved beyond the headlines, with a focus now returning to more predictable factors like increased output in the US, OPEC production targets and damage to regional supply infrastructure being repaired. Global crude inventories have stopped drawing down, though Iranian and other regional supply has not fully returned to previous levels yet. Natural gas traded on subdued levels, buoyed by ample storage accumulation in the US and Europe and the more moderate spring weather.

The truce has also helped to reduce geopolitical disruptions to LNG shipping between the Middle East and other global markets, contributing to softer international spot markets though LNG exports to Asia and Europe continue to be an important fundamental. The truce remains shaky however and could easily break down, but so far the energy markets are reverting to more normal market and seasonal trends.

Natural Gas Futures Holds $2.79 – Descending Channel Resistance

NG futures at the $2.795 price on the 4-hour timeframe on NYMEX are currently trading inside the white downtrend channel from April highs. A recent combination of red and green candles failed to break red MA at the $2.81 price point and has maintained lower highs. The blue trendline offers minor support around $2.78 while Fib extensions point $2.768 to $2.676 downside targets.

The indicator RSI currently sits below 50 indicating bearish sentiment and a bearish trend. Price action shows the $2.814 price point as a point of rejection for bullish momentum. Price structure is still considered bearish as long as the price trades below $2.81. Volume profile analysis identifies the $2.80 area as a zone of supply dominance.

Trade Setup: Sell $2.795; TP $2.768; Stop $2.81

WTI Crude Oil Drops Below $100 – Blue Channel Breakdown Confirmed

WTI crude is trading at $97.62 on the 4-hour timeframe, having just printed a bearish engulfing candle that closed decisively beneath the red 50 SMA as well as the bottom boundary of the blue rising channel (at approximately $100). This breakdown invalidates the higher lows pattern and underscores aggressive distribution from the $100.12 high. Using the Fibonacci tool anchored at the swing low in March, price is currently testing immediate support at $96.92; the subsequent support level sits at $93.97 (the 0.618 retracement).

The indicator RSI has plummeted below 45. White downtrend line resistance from the recent April high is also serving as a resistance level. Volume profile analysis reveals the failed fair value area at $100 and strong participation of selling interest. Price structure is considered bearish at this moment below $100 and is currently in the midst of a corrective phase.

Trade Setup: Sell $97.60; TP $93.97; Stop $99.00

Brent Crude Oil Pulls Back to $103 – Channel Support Tested

Brent crude is trading at $103.88 on the 4-hour timeframe and is currently testing the lower boundary of the blue rising channel in the aftermath of the $105.61 price rejection. Price action has continued the downward trend as evidenced by the recent formation of lower highs while red MA resistance sits at $105. Meanwhile, price currently trades above the Fib 0.382 retracement level at $103.26 and displays green price wicks of rejection. RSI currently hovers around the 48 level, indicating neutral price action.

The next significant support lies in the $100.43 to 100.00 area. Price structure is currently still maintaining the blue uptrend channel from April. A breakdown below the channel support line at $103.22 would increase the likelihood of price dropping further. Volume profile analysis indicates the $105 level as a resistance pivot zone.

Trade Setup: Sell $103.85; TP $100.43; Stop $105.00