Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — Gold Tests $4,700 Support, Silver Hits $84.10 — Next Break?

Gold and Silver Consolidate as Ceasefire Stability Shifts Focus to Macro Data

Gold and silver prices drifted in a flat range on May 12, 2026. The main driver now is the truce between the US and Iran, which has now lasted more than a month. Tanker traffic has been gradually resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, now that the Middle East has achieved a ceasefire, meaning that gold and silver’s surge in prices in recent weeks in part owing to the heightened risk of the geopolitical situation are over.

For gold, a steady buying spree from central banks continues to underpin prices. Many institutions, including the People’s Bank of China, have been buying the yellow metal for more than 17 months.

For silver, industrial use is a big component of demand, and tightness in the physical market continues to be a bullish factor. Lower geopolitical tensions and a generally safer trading environment have dampened gold and silver’s role as a safe haven asset to some extent, but the metal remains highly useful. The metal is heavily relied on by sectors such as solar panels, electronics, EVs and AI. The physical shortage continues. In addition, although the commodity has been losing its attractiveness as an inflation hedge as a result of falling energy prices, the ongoing supply gap and its industrial utility have continued to support demand for the metal.

Gold Spot Dips to $4,700 – Blue Descending Channel Floor Tested

Gold Spot sits at $4,702.60 on 4h chart, retesting lower blue descending channel line after rejection at $4,722 red MA. Mixed candles recent long lower wicks defend $4,686 support with bullish hammer but can’t overcome overhead supply near $4,715. Gold respects lower highs from April highs while above $4,652 Fib 38.2%.

RSI is at 48 and neutral and not showing bullish divergence. Volume indicates $4,680-$4,702 confluence area and more volume in sellers zone above $4,715. Gold remains in bear structure under $4,722 while in multi-week downtrend channel.

Trade idea: Buy $4,702 for $4,722 stop at $4,686.

Silver Spot Hits $84.10 – White Ascending Trendline Resistance

Silver sits at $84.11 on 2h chart, moving higher up steep white ascending trendline from early May lows with strong green candles taking out prior highs. It prints higher highs off of $82.12 Fib support but recent red candles indicate take-profit taking at $84.70 resistance area.

RSI at above 60 with strong momentum. Blue trendline at $82.50 serves as dynamic support and Fib extension shows targets at $86.00-$87.26. More volume at upside with buy order on every dip. Stronger bullish structure above $82.12 inside well-defined ascending channel.

Trade idea: Buy $84.10 for $86.00 stop at $83.00.