Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Eyes on USCPI and Kevin Warsh Testimony — Gold Tests Pivot?

Gold and Silver Markets Navigate Policy Caution and Industrial Demand

The Gold and Silver markets are currently being dictated by the Federal Reserve’s wariness regarding inflation and a strengthening US dollar. With today’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming congressional testimony on the schedule, the focus is intense on how these events may sway rate expectations and, ultimately, US real yields.

The broader economic data and central bank rhetoric to follow these announcements will dictate short-term market sentiment; however, the longer-term case for gold and silver rests on structural themes: ongoing demand from central banks on the gold front and rising industrial demand for the silver market.

As inflation continues to persist and global debts continue to grow, gold remains an important strategic holding. Additionally, central bank gold demand, especially from emerging markets such as China, helps underpin the metal via continuous portfolio diversification programs. While geopolitical concerns have eased slightly with the US-Iran interim accord, the metal’s safe haven value as well as its role as a currency and geopolitical uncertainty hedge remain.

Silver, meanwhile, faces tight fundamentals in the form of a persistent production deficit and elevated industrial consumption. The market is on track for its sixth consecutive year of shortfall in 2026, as mine production remains constrained due to the fact that the majority of silver is mined as a byproduct of base metals. Meanwhile, strong consumption for industrial uses like solar panels, EVs, electronics, and more broadly, AI-related technology helps to sustain silver’s demand, while jewelry and investment-driven demand remains more cyclical.

Gold Spot Holds $4,021 – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout on 4h

Gold is trading at $4,021 on the 4-hour timeframe. Green/red candles are attempting to re-test symmetrical triangle resistance around $4,091, while holding support near $3,959. That support represents a triple bottom formation. We’re seeing bullish rejection with longer wicks, as well as a series of higher lows, suggesting buyers are accumulating. RSI sits at 39 (neutral).

On the volume profile, there is a sizeable amount of buying activity from $4,000 to $4,091 as price continues to bounce within that zone. The 50-period EMA (in blue) is currently placed at $4,087 and is currently acting as resistance.

Price is neutral/bullish as we test the $4,091 level to try and set up higher lows. The overall downtrend is still present from $4,021 until $4,597. There is a confluence on the Fibonacci that provides support in the near-term. I would be interested in a long near $4,021 targeting $4,140. A stop will be placed below $4,091.

Silver Spot Holds $57.73 – EMA 50 Defense on 4h

Silver trades at $57.73 on the 4-hour chart. Price candles remain mixed as we hold the 50-period EMA at $59.61 following a large pullback from the $69.85 high. Red/bearish candles continue to set up lower highs. RSI is 38 (neutral/bearish).

The volume profile shows an area of strength between $56 to $58, with the 50-period EMA (in red) acting as resistance at $62.81. Price is neutral/bearish below $61.71 as it attempts to hold this support during an overall downtrend.

Longer wicks on rejection from resistance suggest sellers are active from these levels. Based on the current technical outlook, I’d be interested in a short near $57.73 targeting $55.60. Stop will be placed above $59.36.