Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Dot Plot in Focus as Geopolitical Risks Lift Demand

Market Overview

Gold and silver held a narrow range during the European session as markets positioned cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Updated economic projections, including the new dot plot, are expected to clarify the trajectory of rate cuts through 2025 and 2026.

Futures markets now assign an 85 percent probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, according to CME FedWatch, reflecting growing confidence that the central bank will begin easing this week. The dollar remains subdued after touching its lowest level since late October, offering additional support to precious metals by improving international purchasing power.

Geopolitical Tensions Maintain Defensive Demand

Gold and silver continue to benefit from steady safe-haven flows as broader geopolitical tensions keep investors defensive. While no single event is driving volatility, unresolved conflicts across multiple regions have reinforced demand for assets perceived as more resilient during periods of uncertainty.

A commodities strategist at a London-based firm noted, “The geopolitical risk premium has stabilised, but it hasn’t disappeared. Investors are pricing uncertainty rather than escalation.”

US Data in Focus Before Fed Decision

Attention now turns to incoming US labour indicators, including the ADP private-sector employment report and JOLTS job-openings data. Any signs of cooling momentum could strengthen expectations for additional easing in 2026 and reinforce support for precious metals.

Still, with Powell set to address the press on Wednesday, trading volumes remain muted. Gold and silver are expected to stay range-bound until the Fed delivers clearer guidance on inflation, growth and the pace of future policy adjustments.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold near $4,180 and silver around $57.75 are likely to remain range-bound ahead of the Fed meeting, with traders waiting for clarity on rate cuts before taking new positions.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,180, slipping below its short-term ascending trendline after repeated failures to hold above $4,199. Recent 2H candles show lower highs and heavier wicks, reflecting steady selling pressure as price stays under the 20-EMA. Immediate support sits at $4,163, the level that previously triggered rebounds.

A break below it could open a move toward $4,123, followed by deeper support near $4,087. On the upside, bulls need a close back above $4,199 to regain momentum. That would allow a push toward $4,257, where previous tops formed.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $57.75, holding above the mid-line of its ascending channel but showing softer momentum after repeated rejections below $59.09. Recent 2H candles show smaller bodies and lower highs, suggesting buyers are losing strength. The price is testing the 20-EMA ($57.68), which has acted as a short-term guide for most of the rally.

A break below $56.47 would expose the next key support at $55.56, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary. On the upside, a close above $59.09 opens the path toward $60.40, followed by $61.82. The RSI drifting below 50 confirms weakening momentum. As long as Silver stays above $56.47, the broader uptrend remains intact, but pressure is building.