Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Breaks Symmetrical Triangle at $4,115 as Silver Holds $60.20 – Next Move?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Supported by Central Bank Demand and Supply Limits

Supply and demand fundamentals for precious metals are reinforced by central bank demand and constrained supply growth, through at least July 10. In addition, central banks are continuing to increase their holdings to diversify as global debts mount and global currencies change. That provides support for the market, separate from speculative investment trading.

For both gold and silver, new supply from mines is growing slowly, and that helps underpin prices. Mining growth for gold has remained sluggish recently, due to aging fields and higher costs. Mining growth is slow for silver as well, despite contributions from mining other metals. Gold and silver prices also are supported by increased recycling as well as increased investment demand.

Demand for silver is growing from increased use in fabrication. Fabrication growth for silver is expected to continue as it is used to fabricate solar panels, as well as for consumer electronic uses. It will also be used to fabricate auto parts as electrification of the auto industry grows. Investment demand for the precious metals supports prices, including holdings through gold and silver ETFs.

The market fundamentals for precious metals are reinforced by continued central bank purchases, slow growth in supply from mines, and ongoing growth in fabrication demand for silver. All these are factors that are interacting with supply and demand in the precious metals.                                                                   

Gold Spot Holds $4,114 – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout on 4h

Gold Spot is $4,114 on the 4h chart. Gold is trading above support at the triple bottom of 3,959, as mixed red and green candles broke out through the symmetrical triangle resistance trend line near 4,091. The candle formation shows buyers are stepping in at key support. RSI was near 51, which signals a neutral market. Volume profile shows that most trades have been near 4,000 to 4,091, which forms a base for buyers. Support now is near 4,115 on EMA 50.

The trend remains neutral-to-bullish as Gold holds at key support. Support from Fibonacci confluence areas should provide stability to the precious metals for now as the 4h candlestick formation prints out higher lows.

Trade Idea: Buy gold at 4,114; stop 4,091, target 4,140.

Silver Spot Holds $60.20 – Fib 0.5 Retest on 4h

Silver is currently trading at 60.20. Silver had a strong down move from its 69.85 high to near 57.51, as mixed candles test key support at Fib 0.5 (63.28). The candles show that buyers are stepping in at support. RSI is near 52, neutral, as Silver trades at a lower level.

The volume profile now shows that 58 to 61, near the current spot price, is now emerging as fair value. Next resistance at $61.71 to $63.33 cluster. The market is now near EMA 50 inside a broader downtrend. Silver is printing higher lows, which shows that buyers are active on dips.

Trade Idea: Buy Silver at $60.20. Stop 59.00, target 61.71.