Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Holds $4,670 Pivot – Is a $4,536 Slide Looming?

Market Overview

Central bank buying is still a big deal, with emerging market central banks buying around 60 tonnes a month as they keep on shifting their reserves away from the US dollar. The Middle East is still pretty volatile and this is all helping to keep gold as a safe place to put your money. People investing in gold through ETFs are still pretty keen on it and that’s because the economic outlook is still quite uncertain and inflation doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.

This week both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs pointed out that there is a lot of official and investor demand for gold – think hundreds of tonnes per quarter – which just goes to show that the long term view for gold is still quite positive.

The silver market is facing a deficit for the sixth time running in 2026, and it’s projected to be somewhere between 46 and 67 million ounces. This is because demand from industry – particularly for things like solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and all the tech that comes with AI – is still going strong. And while recycling is up a bit, it’s not enough to make up for this huge demand and so the silver market is pretty tight. On top of that, all the worries about the state of the world and the energy transition we need to make are all adding to the demand for silver.

Gold (XAUUSD) Pins On $4,670 Pivot: Breakdown Looks Likely Below 0.5 Fib

Gold is trading at $4,686 on the daily chart hovering right above that 0.5 Fibonacci level at $4,670. Its actually been acting as a big pivot after the recent rejection from the trendline at $4,800. The price is still stuck below the 50-day EMA and is continuing to respect that broader downtrend, with those lower highs all the way back to the March peak. The recent candles are showing some indecision with these tiny bodies and long upper wicks – a sign that the sellers are still hanging around on any rallies.

$4,670 is a critical level – if we get a daily close below that zone, we could see the $4,536 (0.382 Fib) level come into play, and then $4,370. Getting back above $4,800 would do some real damage and allow us to retest $4,995. RSI is stuck at 45 – that tells us the bullish momentum is really pretty weak right now.

Trade idea: Sell if the price breaks below $4,670, with a target of $4,536, and stop-loss above $4,800.

Silver (XAGUSD) Breaks Out of Its Channel – Momentum Has Turned Bearish

Silver’s trading at $74.65 and it’s slipped below its channel support on the 4 hour chart – a big sign that the trend might be about to change. The price has also dropped below the 50 EMA, and there’s that 200 EMA sitting up above it at $78.00, reinforcing the resistance. The breakdown is looking pretty solid with those strong bearish candles and increasing downside momentum.

RSI has dropped below 40 – that’s our bearish confirmation – and the fact that we’ve seen some failed attempts to get back up to $76.00 suggests the sellers are pretty keen on defending that level. Now we see immediate support at $72.75 followed by $69.85. We’d need to see a recovery back above $76.00 to make us think the bearish pressure has eased off and we can get back into our prior channel.

Trade idea: Sell if the price breaks below $75.00, target $72.75, stop-loss above $76.50.