Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Retests $4,130 as Silver Falls to $62.94 Amid Ceasefire — Bearish Turn?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Hold Steady as Supply Risks Ease

On June 23, gold and silver were trading slightly more calmly after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, which will reopen the Hormuz strait and allow an easing of previous energy supply constraints. Any short term decline in risk driven safe haven demand can be offset with long term supports in place for both metals.

Central banks continue to make significant net purchases as a portion of the reserve diversification of emerging market central banks to limit exposure to conventional currencies and debt instruments. Gold and silver production remains modest with production still below historical highs, and with silver, industrial fabrication consumption across solar, electronics and semiconductor remains high.

On broader macro economic fundamentals, continued fiscal spending deficits in many major economies creates ongoing requirements to hedge against currency and inflation risk even as easing energy prices from the return to normal supply may alleviate more immediate concerns. Silver, with its investment/industrial composition, has an additional floor with the fabrication offtake, not relying on a change to monetary policy as its only support. Will this new agreement lead more central banks around the globe to take a more accommodating path in the months ahead, as the global economy continues to grow?  

Gold Spot Dips to $4,130 – Pivot Zone Test Supports Potential Stabilization on the 2H Chart

Gold Spot at $4,130 on the 2h chart, with bearish continuation candles testing the blue pivot zone near $4,170 after a large decline from $4,364, the high of the swing low. The presence of a series of lower highs indicates more distribution, although price has so far held above the pivot zone. There were rejection wicks during the most recent lows indicating an attempt to soak up the sell pressure.

The RSI has dipped below 45, indicating further weakening momentum and the volume profile suggests that the $4,170 to $4,200 area is the next support zone to watch. A descending trend line still hovers around $4,282 which may provide resistance, and the overall picture remains neutral to bearish as long as price remains below $4,222. Despite the broader downtrend, the blue pivot zone continues to offer buy opportunities for those who wish to trade a counter-trend stabilization or reversal.

Trade Idea: Buy at $4,130, targeting $4,222, with a stop-loss at $4,078.

Silver Spot Falls to $62.94 – Pivot Zone Breakdown Reinforces Bearish Trend on the 2H Chart

Silver Spot at $62.94 on the 2h chart, with bearish continuation candles breaking below the blue pivot zone near $64.29 after a large decline from $71.49, the high of the swing low. There is an indication of ongoing distribution, with bearish continuation candles, consecutive lower highs and rejection wicks showing sellers in control.

The RSI is just below 45, indicating more selling pressure and the volume profile suggests that the $64 to $66 area was previously a fair-value cluster where sellers gained control, and which they now need to defend in order to keep the downtrend in place. Fibonacci extension levels from the swing high at $71.49 point to further potential downside, with the next zone of interest around $61.50 to $59.97. Overall, price remains decisively below the $64.29 pivot zone in a broader downtrend, and the sequence of lower highs, and lower lows continues to indicate sellers in control.

Trade Idea: Sell at $62.94, targeting $61.50, with a stop-loss at $64.29.