XRP Price Forecast: Potential 35% Drop Ahead as XRP Retests Key Support

XRP (XRP) has hit the $1 threshold today and is flashing a warning sign, as a drop below this support area could trigger a 35% decline in the near term.

In the past 30 days, the token has retreated by 6% while other altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and BNB (BNB) have booked gains of 10% and 5% respectively.

Polymarket Bettors See a 14% Chance of Passing the Clarity Act This Year

The current macroeconomic backdrop remains quite challenging for cryptocurrencies, as market participants expect that interest rates in the United States will increase by at least 25 basis points in any of the next two meetings.

Meanwhile, odds of the approval of the Clarity Act in the North American country dropped dramatically after the U.S. Senate took a recess. According to data from Polymarket, in July alone, chances of approval in 2026 declined from 49% to 27%.

Moreover, these odds dropped even more dramatically this month, declining to just 14% at the time of writing.

This could deal a strong blow to projects whose primary use case is to facilitate the transfer of stablecoins, as failing to get this bill passed in Congress keeps them off one of the largest markets for this service.

Similarly, Stellar, another stablecoin-focused project, has seen the price of its native asset, XLM, drop by 11% during this same 30-day period.

The Senate’s Republican Majority Leader, John Thune, confirmed that he will make sure the bill is voted on as soon as lawmakers come back from this recess in September. However, the market is skeptical that they can get Democrats on board.

A steady decline in net inflows to XRP-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seems to confirm this view, as these vehicles took in only $27 million last month — less than half of the figure they brought in June and 80% less than what investors added in May.

A 35% Downside Risk Looms If This Key Support is Lost

Heading to the daily chart, we can see that the price just hit a key support from which the token bounced off strongly in late June.

That last time, the price hit the $1.15 mark before resuming its downtrend. Meanwhile, a descending triangle has formed as a result of a series of lower highs. This is a bearish price action setup that increases the odds of a break below that $1 threshold.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 34, flashing a sell signal that could further push XRP below this support area. As a result, the RSI is nearing oversold territory. However, even though that could result in a short-term bounce, it also means that bearish momentum is accelerating.

If a breakout occurs, the result could be a sustained drop to $0.65, which is the next relevant support area in line as per the weekly chart. This means a 35% downside risk in the near term at a point when market conditions remain quite unfavorable.