Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Steady as Traders Brace for NFP Volatility

Market Overview

Gold and silver hovered in tight ranges during early European hours as traders waited for the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls report, a release now carrying outsized influence after shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Minutes from the Fed’s late-October meeting showed officials leaning toward a more cautious stance, with several members warning that cutting rates prematurely could risk reigniting inflation.

The recalibration in rate-cut expectations pushed the US dollar to its strongest level since late May, reducing the appeal of non-yielding metals. CME’s FedWatch tool now shows rate-cut odds for December slipping from nearly 50 percent earlier in the week to just above 30 percent — a meaningful shift that has kept investors reluctant to add fresh long positions in precious metals.

Risk Appetite Caps Safe-Haven Demand

A broad improvement in global equity sentiment is further limiting upside for gold and silver. Major indices across Europe and Asia posted moderate gains as investors reassessed recession risks following the resolution of the US government shutdown. The shift toward risk-on positioning has softened flows into traditional safe havens, especially as volatility metrics across major asset classes continue to drift lower.

Market strategists note that precious metals have struggled to attract sustained interest whenever equities regain footing. “With equity markets steadying and the dollar firm, capital is simply looking elsewhere for the moment,” one European commodities analyst said.

Geopolitical Developments Ease Market Anxiety

Geopolitical tensions, while still elevated, have not escalated in ways that typically trigger large safe-haven inflows. Recent diplomatic developments — including renewed international engagement aimed at de-escalation in Eastern Europe — have reduced immediate fears of supply-chain disruptions or broader market instability.

This cooling of geopolitical risk has softened defensive buying in both gold and silver, contributing to the subdued trading tone.

NFP Delay Becomes Key Catalyst to Watch

All eyes now turn to the delayed US labor report, which may offer the clearest signal of whether the economy is slowing enough to justify future policy easing. Softening job creation, weaker wage growth, or a rise in unemployment could revive expectations for early-2026 rate cuts — potentially providing the boost precious metals have been missing.

Until then, traders appear reluctant to take aggressive positions. The next significant move for gold and silver may only materialize once US labor and inflation dynamics become clearer.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is likely to stay range-bound between $4,055–$4,131, while silver holds above $50.06. A breakout hinges on the upcoming NFP report, which could trigger sharper moves.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is holding above the rising trendline near $4,055, keeping the broader structure moderately constructive despite recent volatility. Price is fluctuating between $4,131 resistance and $4,055 support, with the 20-EMA flattening while the 50-EMA continues to slope higher. That combination signals a market in early consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal.

Recent candles show small bodies and mild rejection wicks, hinting at indecision but also steady buying interest on dips. RSI remains around 45, a neutral zone where gold often builds its next move without showing clear divergence.

A push above $4,131 would shift momentum toward $4,188, while a break below $4,055 risks a slide toward $3,996 and the lower trendline.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding above the key $50.06 support, stabilizing after last week’s pullback. The 4-hour chart shows price respecting the long-term ascending trendline while hovering near the 20-EMA, a sign of short-term indecision.

Candles remain mixed, with small bodies and shallow wicks that suggest neither buyers nor sellers have firm control. RSI sits near 45, showing momentum is neutral and no divergence is forming yet.

A push above $52.41 would shift momentum back to buyers and open room toward $54.28. But repeated failures at the mid-range level increase the risk of another dip toward the trendline. A break below $50.06 would expose deeper support around $48.45 and $46.86.