Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Momentum Builds Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its gains on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of $3,325, up 0.69%, as continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.242%, while real yields fell to 1.952%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold.

Analysts at Citi maintain a broad Q3 trading range of $2,100 to $2,500, with a longer-term upside target reaching $2,700 by 2026. “Gold is benefiting from both rate cut expectations and mounting fiscal uncertainty,” the firm noted in its latest metals outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) rose 0.22% to trade near $36.18, rebounding from last week’s low of $35.40.

Dollar Faces Pressure as Fed Speculation Builds

The U.S. dollar has remained under pressure as markets await clarity on the future leadership of the Federal Reserve. With reports suggesting that former President Trump may announce a new Fed Chair nominee as early as September, investors are pricing in heightened policy uncertainty.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near its lowest level since February 2022, which amplifies support for dollar-denominated commodities, such as gold and silver.

Fiscal Concerns and Upcoming Data in Focus

Rising fiscal concerns are also shaping investor sentiment. The recently passed tax legislation, dubbed “One Big Beautiful Bill”, is projected to expand the federal deficit by $3.8 trillion, according to Treasury estimates. This has prompted renewed demand for hedges against long-term fiscal instability.

Looking ahead, markets are watching key U.S. economic releases, including:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 48.8)
• ADP Employment (forecast: 85,000)
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast: 110,000 vs. May’s 139,000)

These figures could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and play a critical role in determining the near-term direction of gold and silver prices.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes a breakout above $3,337, with momentum favoring bulls, while silver holds above $35.91 but remains capped below $36.50 as traders await U.S. data for directional clarity.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is testing a critical resistance zone near $3,337, where a descending trendline aligns with the 200-period EMA. Price has rebounded from $3,244, forming higher lows, and is now challenging a level that has rejected previous rallies.

The short-term bias leans bullish as the 50-EMA turns upward and momentum accelerates. However, the confluence of technical barriers could still cap gains if buyers fail to push through with volume. A confirmed breakout above $3,337 would shift attention toward $3,374 and $3,393.

On the downside, failure to close above resistance could prompt a move back toward $3,294. Current price action reflects a market awaiting confirmation rather than signaling a decisive directional bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating around $36.23, stabilizing just above the 200-period EMA at $35.91 and a rising trendline from early June. Price has made multiple attempts to push beyond the $36.50 resistance zone, but momentum remains muted.

The chart reflects indecision, with short-term highs unable to break cleanly and buyers showing hesitancy near the 50-EMA at $36.15. The structure holds a mildly bullish bias as long as the ascending trendline remains intact. A break above $36.82 could open room toward $37.31 and $37.84.

If price slips below $35.88, bearish pressure may extend toward $35.27. Until a decisive breakout occurs, silver remains range-bound within a tightening structure.