Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Overbought Signals Hint at Short-Term Pullback

Market Overview

Gold retreated modestly in Asian trading Tuesday after touching a fresh record above the $3,758 mark. The pullback came as investors shifted attention toward stronger equity markets, tempering demand for havens. Still, analysts say the downside is limited. “Gold remains anchored by expectations of further Federal Reserve easing and continued U.S. dollar weakness,” said one Singapore-based strategist.

The Fed last week lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%–4.25%, its first cut since December, citing signs of cooling in the labor market. Policymakers signaled two additional cuts before year-end.

Market pricing now suggests rates could fall below 3% by 2026, a trajectory that has weighed heavily on the dollar and bolstered appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Silver Tracks Gold’s Consolidation

Silver edged lower, slipping to $44 an ounce as investors booked profits after a strong rally. The metal has gained more than 10% in September, supported by robust industrial demand and parallel safe-haven flows.

While equity strength has encouraged some selling, the prospect of looser Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks continue to provide a cushion for prices.

Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Haven Demand

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical tensions remain a central driver. The conflict in Ukraine has escalated with reports of intensified drone strikes, while NATO allies accused Russia of airspace violations, heightening security risks across Europe.

In the Middle East, renewed rocket fire and military operations have underscored the fragile backdrop. These developments keep safe-haven flows directed toward precious metals, even as technical indicators flag overbought conditions.

Powell’s Speech in Focus

Attention now turns to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak later Tuesday. Investors will parse his remarks for clues on whether policymakers are prepared to accelerate easing beyond current guidance.

Any shift in tone could ripple quickly across currency and metals markets, determining whether gold and silver sustain momentum or pause for consolidation.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades at $3,755, slightly off record highs, while silver steadies at $43.87. Near-term momentum stays bullish, though overbought signals suggest possible pullbacks before testing higher resistance levels.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold trades at $3,755, holding gains after breaking above $3,740 resistance. The move is supported by momentum, with RSI near 75 indicating overbought conditions but no immediate reversal signal. The price sits above both the 50-EMA ($3,670) and 200-EMA ($3,534), reflecting strong bullish structure.

Key resistance is now at $3,760, aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci level, followed by $3,785 and $3,807. Immediate support rests at $3,740, with deeper levels at $3,708 and $3,691.

A daily close above $3,760 would confirm continuation toward higher Fibonacci targets, while a pullback below $3,740 could trigger short-term profit-taking. Overall, gold remains in an uptrend but stretched momentum favors caution near resistance.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $43.87, consolidating after testing the $44.11 resistance zone. Momentum remains positive, though RSI at 68 signals the market is nearing overbought territory. The metal trades firmly above the 50-EMA ($42.42) and 200-EMA ($40.42), showing sustained bullish momentum. Key support lies at $42.97 and $42.58, with deeper levels at $42.27 and $41.89.

On the upside, resistance at $44.11 is critical, and a breakout above could open the way toward $44.81 and $45.31. If price fails to hold above $43.70, a correction toward $42.90 is likely. Silver’s trend remains constructive, but upside progress depends on sustaining momentum beyond the $44.10–$44.20 area.