Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Tariffs, CPI Data Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices hovered near $3,355 on Friday as renewed trade friction and rising geopolitical risk boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The move came despite a stronger U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) posting a 0.87% gain last week—its best weekly performance since February 2025.

The uptick in bullion prices follows a significant shift in U.S. trade policy. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war. Additional measures include a proposed 15%–20% blanket tariff on a wide range of U.S. trading partners, with exemptions tied to USMCA guidelines.

Markets also reacted to a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and copper, and warnings of further penalties for BRICS-aligned countries.

“These tariffs signal a decisive move toward economic nationalism, and the market is responding by seeking protection in hard assets,” said Priya Jain, commodities strategist at Morgan Crest.

Fed Sticks to Mandate Amid Political Pressure

The Federal Reserve appears intent on maintaining its current stance despite political turbulence. Speaking on Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated that the central bank will not adjust monetary policy to address government debt servicing costs.

“Tariffs introduced since April have increased uncertainty in the outlook,” Goolsbee said. “While inflation remains on a downward path, external risks are rising.”

Key data scheduled this week could influence the

Fed’s tone ahead of the July 19 blackout period:

• June CPI YoY: Expected at 2.6% (May: 2.4%)
• Core CPI YoY: Forecast at 2.8%
• Retail Sales MoM: Projected at 0% (May: -0.9%)
• Initial Jobless Claims: 225K estimate (prior: 227K)

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,355 after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential trend continuation. Price has cleared the 50-EMA ($3,327) and the 200-EMA ($3,324), with a strong daily candle confirming upside momentum.

Immediate resistance lies at $3,365 and $3,396. A decisive close above $3,365 would open the path toward $3,419 and possibly $3,447. On the downside, former resistance at $3,332 now acts as support, followed by $3,309 and $3,283 if sentiment reverses.

The breakout from consolidation indicates renewed bullish interest. As long as gold sustains above $3,332, technical momentum favors buyers heading into the week, especially amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) surged to $38.54, marking a fresh local high before showing signs of exhaustion. The metal is trading around $38.40 on the 2-hour chart, with momentum beginning to fade near key Fibonacci and horizontal resistance.
The $38.54 mark aligns with the 0% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing and serves as immediate resistance.

If silver fails to sustain above this level, a pullback toward $38.00 (23.6% Fib), $37.67 (38.2%), and $37.41 (50%) is likely. Deeper retracements could target $37.14 (61.8%) and $36.76 (78.6%). Upside continuation requires a clean break and close above $38.54, which could trigger a move toward the next resistance at $38.84 and $39.19.

The short-term trend remains bullish with price trading well above the 50-EMA ($37.03) and 200-EMA ($36.47), but caution is warranted near overbought zones and resistance.