The Day Ahead: Markets on Edge Today as Tariff Risk and CPI Data Loom

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures declined early Monday as tariff concerns re-entered focus and earnings season begins.

S&P 500 futures dropped 0.55%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.55%, and Dow futures slid 226 points (-0.51%) following President Trump’s announcement of 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico starting August 1.

This development follows a red week: the S&P 500 slipped 0.31%, Dow lost 1.02%, and Nasdaq edged down 0.08%, all breaking multi-week winning streaks.

Tariff news is now the primary market driver ahead of Tuesday’s inflation print. Investors are also weighing signs of tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve over rate policy and facility spending.

Notable Earnings

Fastenal (FAST) is expected to report $0.28 EPS before the open. After the close, FB Financial (FBK) and Simulations Plus (SLP) are forecast to post $0.88 and $0.22 EPS, respectively. Results will offer early signals for the broader Q2 earnings cycle, with major bank reports beginning Tuesday.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Gold traded to a three-week high on safe-haven flows. Spot gold last priced at $3,361.19 (+0.2%), with U.S. gold futures at $3,376. A close above $3,360 could open a path toward $3,435.

Crude held recent gains. Brent rose to $70.44, WTI traded at $68.50. Oil is supported by supply risk from potential Russia sanctions but limited by Saudi output above quota and weaker trade expectations.

Bitcoin broke through $120,000, reaching $122,571 before pulling back to $121,953 (+2.4%). Strength is linked to institutional demand and pending U.S. legislation this week that may set a national regulatory framework.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini last traded at 6,283.00. Resistance levels are 6,335.50. Support sits at 6,246.25, followed by 5,959.00. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are at 6,036.30 and 5,991.50.

Nasdaq 100 E-mini is trading at 22,899, with resistance at 23,112.00. Support rests at 22,779.75, then 21,566.75. The 50-day MA is at 21,849.90, and the 200-day at 21,309.50.

Dow E-mini is trading at 44,462. Resistance is marked at 45,043 and 45,177. Support levels are 44,422. The 50-day MA is at 43,039.10 and the 200-day at 43,547.00.

Outlook

Tariff risk and rate uncertainty may pressure equities early in the week. Traders will focus on Tuesday’s CPI release and initial Q2 earnings for further direction. Headline risk remains elevated, and price action is likely to remain sensitive to Fed commentary and geopolitical developments.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.