Hang Seng Index News: Trade Data Supports Gains, But US Tariffs Cloud Outlook

China Trade Data Offsets US Tariff Rollouts

President Trump announced new tariff hikes on Friday, July 11, impacting US markets. However, Beijing’s recent stimulus pledges and trade data from China bolstered demand for Hong Kong and Mainland China-listed stocks on Monday, July 14.

On Monday, July 14, the Hang Seng Index reversed early losses, with electric vehicle (EV) and tech stocks advancing.

Key upcoming Chinese GDP data, trade developments, and central bank policy signals will continue to drive the markets. These factors may determine if the Index retests support at 24,000 or resistance at 24,500.

Hang Seng Index Advances as Trade Data Signals Demand Pickup

US equity markets posted losses on July 11 as investors reacted to trade headlines. The Dow dropped 0.63%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.22%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index advanced 0.09% to 24,160 in early trading on Monday, July 14.

Mainland China markets also added to Friday’s gains. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index posted gains of 0.22% and 0.43%, respectively.

EV and Tech Stocks Gain Trade Data Lifts Sentiment

Last week’s stimulus news from Beijing and today’s trade data drove demand for EV and tech stocks. Beijing announced measures aimed at stabilizing the labor market, a key factor for domestic consumption. Upbeat trade data added to the positive sentiment.

Tech giants Alibaba (09988) and Tencent (00700) rose 1.05% and 0.28%, respectively, sending the Hang Seng TECH Index up 0.15%.

EV-related stocks Nio Inc. (09866) soared 10.43%, with Li Auto (02015) rallying 2.76%. Brian Tycangco, editor at Stansberry Research, commented on NIO’s early breakout, stating:

“Nio Inc. (9866.HK) surged 11% in the opening hour of trade in HKEXGroup to kick off the week on a high note after last week’s launch of its L90 model sees strong pre-orders for premium large SUV segment.“

China Exports Jump, Driving an Import Recovery

China’s trade data drew investor interest during Monday’s morning session. Exports increased 5.8% year-on-year in June, up from 4.8% in May, while imports rose 1.1% (May: -3.4%). Demand improved despite US tariffs, supporting Beijing’s 5% GDP target for 2025.

However, Trump’s latest tariff announcements capped the gains across the Hong Kong and Mainland China markets. Tariffs on ASEAN countries could impact Chinese exports via third countries, including Indonesia and Vietnam.

Trump Escalates Trade Tensions with Tariffs on the EU and Mexico

Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico on July 11, effective August 1, escalating trade tensions. However, the market reaction was relatively muted in the Asian session on July 14.

The Kobeissie Letter downplayed any potential impact of Trump’s latest tariff rollouts on risk assets, stating:

“It’s clear that this is entirely a negotiating tactic by President Trump, with a small chance that these tariffs even stick. Adding to this view, an EU spokesperson just said that the US informed the EU in ADVANCE before this letter was sent. The fact that these tariffs are likely to be utilized as a “bargaining tool” for a trade deal will be positively received by the market. Markets will remain little fazed by tariffs for now.”

US and European Futures were down in morning trading while Mainland China and HK-listed stocks advanced. Market trends suggested Beijing’s stimulus efforts and China’s trade data sent the Hang Seng Index and Mainland China markets higher.

Technical Setup: 24,500 Resistance or 24,000 Support?

On July 14, the Hang Seng Index traded within the July congestion zone but held above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling a bullish bias.

Progress toward a US-China trade deal or new stimulus measures from Beijing could drive the Index toward the June 25 high of 24,533. Sustained buying pressure may bring the March high of 24,874 into play. Conversely, a drop below 24,000 could expose the 50-day EMA and the 23,500 level.

Hang Seng Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 24,533 and then 24,874.
• Support: 24,000, then the 50-day EMA at 23,626 and 23,500.
• Short-term Bias: Bullish but hinged on trade developments, upcoming Chinese GDP data, the Fed rate path, and Beijing’s stimulus measures.

Hang Seng Index Forecast: Will the Index Break 24,500 or Drop Toward 24,000?

The Hang Seng Index traded in the July congestion zone while avoiding the 50-day EMA as Beijing’s stimulus pledges and China’s trade data supported risk appetite.

Labor market stability, improving consumer sentiment, and a pickup in domestic consumption could counter US tariffs, potentially sending the Hang Seng Index toward the June 25 high of 24,533.

Conversely, stalled trade talks and a proxy US trade war with China could impact corporate profits and undermine Beijing’s efforts to bolster the labor market. Intensifying domestic price wars and weaker domestic consumption may drag the Index toward 24,000, bringing the 50-day EMA and 23,500 into play.

What’s next for the Hang Seng Index? Stay informed with real-time updates as geopolitical risks and US-China developments drive sentiment. Follow our live coverage and consult our economic calendar.