Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: IEA Supply Warning vs. Saudi Export Surge—What’s Next?

Market Overview

Crude oil prices remain supported despite the IEA’s forecast of a potential surplus later this year. Strong summer travel demand and elevated refinery activity continue to prop up near-term prices. Russia’s commitment to offset recent overproduction and Saudi Arabia’s record crude exports to China, expected in August, are bolstering bullish sentiment.

However, the IEA revised its supply growth outlook higher and trimmed demand forecasts, raising concerns about a looser oil market into year-end. Adding to longer-term caution, OPEC slashed its global demand forecast for 2026–2029, citing slower economic growth in China.

Geopolitical risks persist as well, with traders eyeing potential new US sanctions against Russia amid heightened Ukraine-related tensions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading near $3.36 after briefly testing resistance at $3.386, which aligns with the descending trendline and the 50-period EMA. Price remains within a broader falling channel, indicating the longer-term trend remains bearish despite short-term recovery attempts.

A decisive break above $3.386 could trigger a move toward the $3.471 level, where the 200-period EMA ($3.653) and a key horizontal barrier converge.

However, repeated rejections at current levels signal hesitation among bulls. If downward pressure resumes, the $3.176 and $3.059 support levels come into focus.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil has rebounded firmly to $68.66, reclaiming ground near the upper band of its rising channel. The price has broken above the $67.58 resistance, which now acts as a near-term support zone, aligning with the 50-period EMA. This move also confirms a bullish reaction off the lower trendline near $66.46.

If the current momentum holds, WTI could retest $68.88, followed by a potential extension toward $69.68 and the key resistance at $70.61. However, a failure to close above $68.88 could invite short-term consolidation.

Momentum indicators remain constructive, though traders are closely monitoring the broader risk environment for any geopolitical developments or tariff-related headlines that may impact supply and demand dynamics in the coming sessions.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $70.62 after rebounding sharply from support at $68.51, supported by a bullish channel structure and rising EMAs. The 50-period EMA at $69.87 and the 200-period EMA at $68.84 both act as dynamic support, reinforcing the uptrend. Price action now challenges resistance near $70.80, the upper boundary of the channel.

A clean breakout above $70.80 could pave the way toward the next key level at $71.74, with a potential extension to $72.95 if bullish momentum strengthens. However, failure to hold above $69.62 may trigger a pullback toward $68.51 and $67.32. Momentum remains constructive as long as price holds within the ascending structure.