Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Traders Brace for Powell’s Speech and Policy Hints

Market Overview

Gold and silver steadied on Tuesday as traders positioned ahead of a pivotal week packed with economic data and central bank announcements. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set for Wednesday, expectations of another 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.00% have underpinned demand for precious metals.

A softer US dollar, down 0.1% against major peers, also supported the broader commodities complex, making metals more appealing to non-dollar investors.

Fed Policy in Focus

Investors are watching closely for signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, where markets expect a more dovish tone amid slowing economic momentum. The Richmond Manufacturing Index and CB Consumer Confidence data due today will offer early clues on the health of the US economy, with consumer sentiment projected to edge down to 93.4 from 94.2.

Tomorrow’s Pending Home Sales data, forecast at 1.7% versus 4.0% previously, could further shape expectations about the Fed’s policy path.

Analysts at HSBC noted that “the Fed remains under pressure to strike a balance between curbing inflation and avoiding an unnecessary slowdown,” adding that dovish commentary could extend the rally in defensive assets like gold and silver.

Broader Market Outlook

Beyond the Fed, central banks in Europe and Japan are also expected to maintain policy stability, while improving signs of US–China trade cooperation have helped limit volatility.

Officials from both nations reportedly finalized the framework of a trade agreement ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this week, an event markets hope will de-escalate tensions that have weighed on global trade flows.

Metals Regain Their Shine

Gold’s resilience this week reflects renewed hedging against macro uncertainty, while silver’s correlation with industrial demand remains a key focus. With traders balancing optimism over trade with caution ahead of policy shifts, both metals appear poised for moderate upside, contingent on the Fed’s tone and whether easing inflation expectations translate into sustained rate cuts through year-end.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,940 and $4,050, with pressure persisting below resistance. Silver remains bearish, hovering near $46.60, risking a dip toward $45.50 if momentum fails to recover.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,966, extending its decline after failing to reclaim the $4,017 support level. On the 4-hour chart, the metal continues to drift lower within a descending structure, testing the 200-EMA ($3,943) as immediate support. The 50-EMA ($4,103) remains a key resistance, confirming that short-term momentum still favors sellers.

The RSI at 33 signals near-oversold conditions, though no clear bullish divergence has formed yet. A sustained break below $3,943 could expose $3,835 and $3,722 as the next downside targets.

Conversely, a close above $4,050 would indicate early signs of recovery, opening a path back toward $4,176. For now, gold’s trend bias remains cautiously bearish below $4,050.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $46.66, extending its bearish streak as sellers maintain control below the 200-EMA ($47.27). The metal has broken beneath its prior support at $47.54, which now acts as resistance, signaling a potential continuation toward $45.85.

The RSI near 30 suggests the market is oversold but not yet confirming a reversal. Price action remains capped by the 50-EMA ($49.09), reinforcing the broader downtrend.

A daily close below $46.50 could invite further losses toward $45.50, while a rebound above $47.50 may spark a recovery toward $49.00. For now, silver’s bias stays bearish unless buyers reclaim the $47.50–$48.00 zone with conviction.