Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Truce Stability vs FOMC Decision — Can Gold Hold Support or Silver Extend?

Gold and Silver Consolidate as Markets Await Pivotal FOMC Decision

Gold and silver had an undecided June 17, 2026 trade with little direction. The Federal Reserve June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting concluded today. It was the first time that Chair Kevin Warsh led the Fed. This meeting is expected to provide important clarity on monetary policy in a high-inflation period.

Official sector demand for gold is still very good. The People’s Bank of China is a buyer for 17+ straight months and there are many others among the emerging market central bank community. Real rates and the dollar have had some positive inflation support.

Silver’s industrial component is still there and is offsetting the lower safe-haven flows. Supply deficits are also global as well. There is still strong industrial demand for renewable energy, transportation, electronics, and AI. Real rates are higher and inflation-hedging has weakened a bit.

The conditional U.S.-Iran ceasefire, now more than eleven weeks old, continues to hold with gradual normalization of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement remains fragile. The FOMC meeting was June 16-17, 2026. The metals are likely to move from headline risk to more fundamentals trading going forward.                                                          

Gold Spot Rises to $4,345 – Descending Channel Bounce Supports Recovery on the 2H Chart

Gold Spot has now reached $4,345 on the 2-hour chart. Lower side of descending blue channel is defended near $4,306 by bullish candles, as rejection wicks continue to emerge from lower areas. Bullish candles have formed higher lows from swing low of $4,182 as buyers soak up supply. Meanwhile, 50 period moving average continues to offer support near $4,320.

RSI has held near 52 as market remains neutral with bullish bias. Volume has formed a cluster at the $4,280-$4,320 area, which could act as pivot levels. Resistance continues to be capped by descending trendline near $4,364.

Overall market structure remains neutral to bullish above $4,306 as market trades inside broader down-channel formed from high of $4,575. Market shows fair-value formation along Fibonacci areas and higher lows continue to form.

Trade Idea: Buy at $4,345, targeting $4,364, with a stop-loss at $4,306.

Silver Spot Climbs to $70.22 – Ascending Channel Breakout Strengthens Bullish Momentum on the 2H Chart

Silver Spot has now reached $70.22 on the 2-hour chart. Higher side of ascending blue channel is now broken above $69.08 as higher highs have been formed from lower areas. Bullish candles continue to show bullish bias as lower levels get retested.

Meanwhile, 50 period moving average near $70.59 now acts as resistance. RSI has now pushed above 52 as trend turns bullish. Market has now formed a fair value area of $68-$70 as per volume profile, with higher lows continuing to form at higher levels as buyers accumulate in this area.

Overall market structure turns bullish above $69.08 as market continues to form higher highs/lows and buyers remain in control of pullbacks on higher highs/lows.

Trade Idea: Buy at $70.22, targeting $72.10, with a stop-loss at $69.08.