Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Truce Stability vs Inflation Pressure Amid Iran-Israel Conflict – Upside Ahead?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Hold as Iran Ceasefire Alters Risk Calculus

On 16 Jun 2026, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal and expected resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz do not seem to change the medium-term structure of the metals much. The main support for the metals on medium-term time horizons continues to be central bank gold buying, with official sector gold purchases reflecting ongoing diversification efforts due to elevated world debt, fiscal concerns and policy divergences.

Although the ceasefire deal may reduce safe-haven buying pressures from ongoing disruptions of shipping in the Gulf over the medium term, the longer-term drivers, i.e. inflation fears after higher energy prices in the past couple of years and diversification of reserves continue to underpin medium-term and long-term gold buying.

With the global market in its 6th consecutive year of deficit and rising silver consumption from solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles and other electronic equipment and AI-related data centres likely to continue outstripping supply from mine output due to the long lags involved in the response of production from mines of base-metal ores, silver fundamentals continue to be anchored by persistent deficits in the silver market.

Even though the U.S. and Iran deal on the ceasefire in the ongoing military conflict may help mitigate the near-term impact of geopolitical tensions on the metals, tight physical balance for the market along with a strong case for silver as an industrial input along with an asset that continues to benefit from being an integral part of the broader green-energy investment agenda provide silver with a strong structural foundation for price appreciation over the medium-term and longer-term time horizons. The metals continue to be supported by official sector buying from central banks, supply concerns and broader structural economic concerns even if the near-term conflict risk seems lower.

Gold Spot Climbs to $4,345 – Descending Channel Support Holds on the 2H Chart

Gold Spot has surged to $4,345 on the 2-hour time frame, finding support within the 2H Descending channel near $4,306 and the 50 MA around $4,320. There has been bullish rejection wicks off the lower blue channel, $4,306 level, as well as repeated higher lows from the $4,182 level, indicating that buyers are absorbing selling pressure and the overall market structure remains bullish in nature even though we still sit within a larger 2H descending channel, formed from the $4,575 level.

Mixed formations in the latest 2H candles, however, suggests that selling pressures are starting to emerge. RSI has moved to around 52, indicating that bullish momentum is improving without being excessively overbought yet. The $4,280, $4,320 price zone is now being confirmed as a dynamic price support zone within this larger 2H descending channel. The descending trendline, formed on the 2H, is capping upside price discovery near the $4,364 level, but there is still bullish momentum as long as price sits above the $4,306 level.

Overall, the market is still neutral to bullish in its structure above the $4,306 area, supported by Fibonacci confluences, bullish rejection wicks off price support and the overall bullish nature of the market structure and the emerging trend in the 2H timeframe.

Trade Idea: Buy at $4,345, targeting $4,364, with a stop-loss at $4,306.

Silver Spot Rises to $70.60 – Ascending Channel Breakout Signals Bullish Continuation on the 2H Chart

Silver Spot has gained momentum to $70.60 on the 2H timeframe. There is strong bullish momentum with bullish candles breaking above the ascending blue channel on the 2H timeframe, indicating higher highs continue and price action is confirmed bullish within this trendline above the $69.08 resistance level on the 2H timeframe. The most recent 2H time frame price action is marked with a continuation of strong bullish momentum and bullish rejection candlesticks, with a confirmed support structure near the $70.59 level.

The 50 MA on the 2H timeframe, located around $70.59, acts as a strong dynamic support level near price. There have been strong bullish momentum indicators on the 2H time frame, as the RSI indicator has moved above 52 level, confirming an increasingly bullish bias.

A volume profile indicates that the $68, $70 area is likely to become a fair value area where buyers have started to accumulate more positions. A confirmed bullish trend has been established with higher lows and higher highs as an ongoing trend above the $69.08 level, confirmed with strong price action on the 2H timeframe with clear market support structure.

Trade Idea: Buy at $70.60, targeting $72.10, with a stop-loss at $69.50.