Grain Price Analysis – Chaotic G7 Meeting Generates Additional Volatility

Grain prices are lower in early North American trade and attempting to stabilize near trend line support. Prices have been trading under pressure as it is clear that planting has caught up. Trumps meeting with the G7 did little to calm the fears of traders, as tariffs and a wide breadth of products appear to be in the cards.  Bean meal crushing came out in line with expectations according to the USDA.

Corn Prices

Corn prices are consolidating after breaking down and poised to test target support near the 200-day moving average at 3.63. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.85. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices are lower in early North American trade holding above support near an upward sloping trend line that come in near 966. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1000. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

The USDA’s April crush data was largely in line with the data NOPA had previously reported.  Per the USDA, 171,638,233 bushels of beans were crushed during the month of April. This resulted in 1.965 billion pounds of oil and 3.822 million tons of meal. The crush declined by 6% from March but was 14% more than April of last year. Oil production fell 5.5% and cake/meal output was down 5.1%. Month ending stocks for soybean meal dropped 18% to 404,468 tons, erasing the majority of last month’s 19% rise. Crude oil stocks ballooned 11.4% to 2.32 billion pounds and reaching their highest level since the USDA started covering the crush again in mid-2015.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices are lower early North American Trade. Support is seen near and upward sloping trend line at 5.10. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 520. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.