Is Ethereum Going To Rise in September?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has outpaced the broader crypto market in August with a gain of over 18.8%, compared to the sector’s 14% rise.

The outperformance is tied to stronger inflows into Ether-based ETFs relative to Bitcoin (BTC), adding fuel to growing expectations of an “altseason.”

Can Ether continue growing in September? Let’s examine.

A Bullish August is Historically Bad For Ethereum’s September

Ethereum’s track record shows that a bullish August has almost always been followed by a bearish September.

For instance, ETH gained +25.3% in August 2020 but fell −17% in September; in 2021, a +35.6% August was followed by a −12.5% drop; and in 2023, a +13.4% August gave way to a −11.3% decline the next month.

The pattern mirrors traditional markets, where September is historically the weakest month for equities.

That includes the US benchmark, the S&P 500, which has averaged a −1.2% return since 1928.

Analysts often attribute this to portfolio rebalancing after summer rallies, tax-loss harvesting, and investors repositioning ahead of Q4. As crypto remains tightly correlated with risk assets, Ether has tended to echo this seasonal pullback.

More than 96% of Ethereum addresses are currently in profit, according to Glassnode data.

The data represents the share of unique externally owned addresses (EOAs) whose average “buy price” — the value of ETH when coins were first deposited — sits below the current market price.

Contract addresses are excluded from this calculation, making it a direct read on retail and institutional holders.

When nearly all holders are in profit, the incentive to take gains increases, which can put downward pressure on the price. In past cycles, similar conditions have preceded corrections, making September a potential risk period for ETH.

Ethereum Technicals Are Bullish For September

Ethereum is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart, a pattern that often precedes sharp breakouts.

The structure has formed after a strong rally in August, with the price coiling between lower highs and higher lows.

If ETH manages to break above the triangle’s resistance trendline, the setup projects a target around $5,300, more than 20% higher than current levels.

What Could Change This View?

The 50-EMA ($4,464) is acting as immediate resistance, while the 200-EMA ($4,212) remains the key support to watch. A decisive break below the latter would invalidate the bullish outlook and expose ETH to deeper retracement levels instead of continuation.