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Aaron Hill
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Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

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(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Closing the book on the month of June witnessed EUR/USD—in the shape of a near-full-bodied bearish candle—touch gloves with familiar support at $1.1857-1.1352 and erase 3.0 percent. A bullish revival shines the spotlight on 2021 peaks at $1.2349; additional enthusiasm welcomes ascending resistance (prior support [$1.1641]).

July currently trades unchanged.

Based on trend studies, a primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the $1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Furthermore, price penetrated major trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

The US dollar, according to the US dollar index (ticker: DXY), finished Monday off best levels, albeit in mildly positive territory, which weighed on EUR/USD movement.

EUR/USD price remains communicating with Quasimodo support at $1.1836. Further outperformance, therefore, could be on the cards, targeting the 200-day simple moving average around $1.2001. Territory below $1.1836 shifts interest to another Quasimodo formation at $1.1688.

With regards to trend, we have been somewhat rudderless since the beginning of the year, despite healthy upside in 2020.

The relative strength index (RSI) exited oversold (bullish cue) last week, with the indicator’s value on the doorstep of the 50.00 centreline. Crossing above the latter helps add weight to upside action.

H4 timeframe:

The Quasimodo formation at $1.1880 arranged a ceiling of resistance on Monday, guiding the currency pair to a session low of $1.1836 and threatening a possible test of demand at $1.1794-1.1822.

Recognising higher timeframes are somewhat deprived of notable resistances, rupturing $1.1880 is perhaps in store, taking aim at two Quasimodo resistances at $1.1970 and $1.1956, closely followed by supply at $1.2006-1.1983.

H1 timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

The H1 chart shows the 100-period simple moving average around $1.1837 continues to deliver support.

Demand-turned supply at $1.1895-1.1911 remains in the frame. Technical confluence is seen at the $1.19 round number, a 61.8% Fib retracement also at $1.19 (green), and two 100% Fib projections at $1.1914/$1.1894 as well as a 200% BC Fib extension at $1.1913 (orange). Harmonic traders will note 100% Fib projections denote a traditional AB=CD pullback.

As for the relative strength index (RSI), the value recoiled from trendline support, extended from the low 25.51. Should the indicator venture north of the 50.00 centreline, overbought settings could be seen, along with resistance at 78.97.

Observed levels:

Outlook Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

Having noted daily price reigniting interest at Quasimodo support from $1.1836, and monthly crossing swords with the upper side of support at $1.1857-1.1352, moves to the 200-day simple moving average around $1.2001 may materialise.

Shorter term, although H4 Quasimodo resistance calls for attention at $1.1880, H1 suggests a breach of this level to test H1 demand-turned supply at $1.1895-1.1911 and associated confluence (additional resistance).

But, as highlighted in Monday’s technical briefing, given higher timeframes propose higher levels, a sizeable reaction from either of the aforesaid H1 or H4 areas is questionable. Consequently, elbowing above $1.19 perhaps unlocks the door to another H4 Quasimodo resistance at $1.1956, action breakout buyers are likely to be drawn to.

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AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

June’s 3.0 percent decline recently landed July in reach of support at $0.7394. Additional downside pressure brings demand at $0.7029-0.6664 to light (prior supply).

Forging support over the coming months, however, places trendline resistance (prior support – $0.4776 low) and supply from $0.8303-0.8082 in sight.

July is currently down 0.2 percent.

Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [$1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking $0.8135 (January high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

Supply-turned demand at $0.7453-0.7384—an area housing key Fib ratios, including a 100% projection at $0.7418 and a 1.272% Fib extension at $0.7424—put in an appearance in the second half of last week. Friday’s muscular response (despite Monday’s lacklustre performance) points to a test of the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7575, a dynamic value sheltered south of resistance from $0.7626.

In terms of trend, 2020 was a respectable year for AUD/USD, though 2021 is on the back foot.

From the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator continues to emphasise a position of bullish divergence, revealing downside momentum is lacking.

H4 timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

Following Friday unearthing support, made up of a 100% Fib projection at $0.7427 and a 1.13% BC Fib extension at $0.7423, the currency pair remains within shouting distance of resistance at $0.7508, accompanied by a 50.00% retracement at $0.7505.

Should $0.7508 stand down, this sets the stage for a run back to Quasimodo resistance at $0.7599 (parked under another Quasimodo resistance from $0.7621).

H1 timeframe:

$0.75 is a key watch on the H1 scale right now, particularly after Monday climbed the 100-period simple moving average at $0.7469 off the 50.00% retracement value ($0.7451).

Brushing aside $0.75 directs the radar towards resistance at $0.7546, with interest also perhaps on the 100% Fib projection value from $0.7533 and 200% Fib extension at $0.7542.

The relative strength index (RSI) settled Monday above the 50.00 centreline, indicating moves to overbought and associated resistance at 78.26 might take shape.

Observed levels:

Against the backdrop of higher timeframes, which seats buyers in a favourable position (support), the $0.75 figure and H4 resistance at $0.7508 garnering attention is possible.

However, appreciating that the bigger picture forecasts a buyers’ market, a $0.7508 breach may observe buyers take aim at H1 resistance from $0.7546 (and nearby Fib studies at $0.7533 and $0.7542), followed by H1 supply at $0.7585-0.7566 (joined by the 200-day simple moving average on the daily timeframe at $0.7575).

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and cut through descending resistance, etched from the high ¥118.66.

Although April finished lower by 1.3 percent and snapped the three-month winning streak, May (+0.2 percent) held the breached descending resistance and echoed support in June, higher by 1.4 percent.

July trades 0.7 percent in the red.

Daily timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

The US dollar eked out gains against the Japanese yen on Monday, extending Friday’s modest recovery.

Continued support shows a test of trendline support-turned resistance (taken from the low 102.59) could come about, possibly spearing into resistance at ¥111.88-111.20. Territory north has supply at ¥112.68-112.20.

The trendline support breach, technically speaking, remains reasonably noteworthy, suggesting a potential bearish presence.

Trend studies reveal the pair has been trending higher since the beginning of the year.

In terms of the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator dropped through the lower wall of an ascending channel between 58.82 and 47.51 last week and appears poised to retest the breached boundary this week.

H4 timeframe:

A closer reading of price action on the H4 scale has the unit within a stone’s throw from resistance at ¥110.48, closely tracked by trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low ¥108.56. This, of course, follows last week carving out Fibonacci support between ¥109.48 and ¥109.70.

H1 timeframe:

Mid-way through European trading Monday, bulls entered an offensive phase and consumed trendline resistance, extended from YTD peaks of around ¥111.66, as well as the 100-period simple moving average at ¥110.25. As you can see, this led price into resistance at ¥110.43, teaming up with a minor Fib retracement cluster around ¥110.33 (38.2%/61.8%).

In terms of the relative strength index (RSI), we are testing waters ahead of overbought space, with resistance also on the scene around 78.38.

Observed levels:

Similar Outlook from Previous Analysis.

Highlighting last week’s trendline support breach on the daily timeframe clouds this market with a somewhat bearish vibe, particularly for swing trading strategies. This also places a question mark on present conviction above the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance-turned support, taken from the high ¥118.66.

H1 resistance between ¥110.43 and ¥110.33 is active, as we write. Join this with H4 resistance at ¥110.48 and H4 trendline support-turned resistance, extended from the low ¥108.56, bears could make a show from ¥110.48-¥110.33 (red H1 zone).

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since February, GBP/USD has echoed an indecisive environment south of $1.4377: April high 2018. This follows December’s (2020) trendline resistance breach, taken from the high $2.1161, which could serve as support if retested.

July is currently up 0.4 percent.

Primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until $1.4377 gives way.

Daily timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

Resistance at $1.4003 remains centre this week—a level displaying commitment since March of this year.

Quasimodo support at $1.3609 (connected with a 38.2% Fib retracement at $1.3641 and the 200-period simple moving average, circling $1.3668) is also in the spotlight.

The relative strength index (RSI), following earlier bullish divergence, is now in the vicinity of the 50.00 centreline. Venturing above the latter would help set out a bullish tone.

H4 timeframe:

Technical Structure Unchanged from Previous Analysis.

Quasimodo support from $1.3761, as you can see, has served well so far in July. Friday’s one-sided move north unseated last Tuesday’s high of $1.3899, arguing a climb to supply at $1.3986-1.3958 is perhaps in the air. Note that a resistance zone is also present above at $1.4027-1.3998.

H1 timeframe:

The Quasimodo resistance at $1.3910, together with a 100% Fib projection at 1.3909: an AB=CD harmonic pattern that brings a 1.13% Fib extension to the table at $1.3918, entered the frame on Monday and held buyers back.

Additional levels of interest remain at resistance from $1.3935 as well as a support level coming in at $1.3834.

The relative strength index (RSI) ended the day flirting with the 50.00 centreline, following an earlier bottom at 43.00.

Observed levels:

Similar Outlook from Previous Analysis.

From the bigger picture, daily resistance at $1.4003 is a key level on higher timeframes, according to the current technical landscape. Though in the event sellers take control, the spotlight will be directed to daily Quasimodo support at $1.3609.

While H1 shows interesting resistance formed between $1.3918 and $1.39, both the H4 and daily timeframes exhibit scope to navigate higher. The next upside target on the H4 is seen at supply from $1.3986-1.3958. With this in mind, $1.3918/$1.39 shorts are likely to be light (with H1 resistance at $1.3935 also perhaps thin), as buyers look to run for higher timeframe resistances.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

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