Late Rally Over 33721 Shifts E-mini Dow Momentum to Upside

The sell-off in the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up intensity Monday as investors dumped shares in anticipation of a less friendly Federal Reserve and the possible invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army.  The blue chip average lost more than 1,000 points at one point during the session. It is now down for a seventh straight day.

At 20:12 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33691, down 466 or -1.36%.

Investors are eyeing the Fed’s policy meeting, which wraps up on Wednesday. Market participants will be looking for any signals on how much the central bank will raise interest rates this year and when it will start.

Investors are also monitoring geopolitical tensions as Russia-built up its military presence at the Ukrainian border. President Joe Biden is set to speak with European leaders Monday amid fears of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 32699.

A move through 36390 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely, however, due to the prolonged move down in term of price and time, the E-mini Dow is trading inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is 30089 to 36832. The E-mini Dow is currently testing its retracement zone at 33461 to 32665.

The short-term range is 36390 to 33031. Its retracement zone at 34932 – 35380 is the nearest upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 33721.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33721 will indicate the return of buyers. If this move creates enough late session momentum then look for a possible surge into 34157.

Taking out 34157 will turn the E-mini Dow higher for the session. This could extend the rally into 34410.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33721 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 33461. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level.

A failure at 33461 could trigger a further break into 33031, followed by 32665.