FXEMPIRE
All

Manufacturing Goes Deeper Into Recession, Yet Gold Remains Muted. Why?

The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.2 points to a reading of 48.1 in November. However, gold struggles to find momentum. What is going on exactly?
Arkadiusz Sieroń
Gold Bars

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further

The Institute for Supply Management announced that its index of national factory activity dropped from 48.3 in October to 48.1 last month. The number was below expectations and it also remained below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction – shrinking for the fourth straight month. In other words, the manufacturing sector is still in recession.

We all know that. But what about the future and the broad economy? Well, situation looks better here, as the ISM index remains above the 42.9 level, which is associated with a recession in the broader economy. And the recent improvement in China’s PMIs prompt some to say that the ISM is bouncing along the bottom. Moreover, the strike at General Motors is over, while Boeing hopes to resume deliveries of its 737 MAX.

However, the decline in new orders – the New Orders Index registered 47.2 percent in November, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the October reading of 49.1 percent – suggests downside risk, if anything. The fact that Trump restored tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina will not help the domestic manufacturing sector which already is struggling with higher tariffs, trade uncertainty, slowing profit growth and weak overseas demand.

Following shaky economic reports – besides data on manufacturing, the index of pending home sales dropped 1.7 percent, while the personal incomes were flat in October – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta slashed its fourth-quarter GDP estimate from 1.7 to 1.3 percent annualized rate, reviving worries of a slowing domestic economy.

Implications for Gold

What does it all mean for the gold market? From the fundamental point of view, weaker industrial production should support gold prices. This is because the manufacturing sector’ problems could not only translate into slower economic growth, but also force the Fed to adopt again a more dovish stance and cut interest rates further in 2020.

But the manufacturing recession failed to spur rally in gold in the fourth quarter of 2019, as the chart below shows. The gold prices are clearly struggling to find momentum, even in the face of disturbing data on the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Chart 1: Gold prices (London P.M. Fix, in $) from October to December 2019.

However, other economic data ended up better than expected. Investors also became more optimistic about the trade deal between China and the U.S. So, given where the general stock markets are, gold is actually not doing bad – but the key test will be yellow metal’s behavior in response to the recent greenback’s weakening. Stay tuned!

If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. You can still subscribe to our Alerts at very promotional terms – it takes just $9 to read the details right away and then receive follow-ups for the next three weeks. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!

Thank you.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments hrough Diligence and Care

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
RISK DISCLAIMER
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
FOLLOW US