May Bounce Begins for ASX 200, But 9,000 Resistance Stands in the Way

The first trading day of the month the ASX 200 Index rose about 0.74%, but over the last 5 trading sessions the move remains negative at -0.72%. This still looks more like a recovery attempt than a confirmed trend reversal. The bounce was helped by bargain hunting, stronger China factory activity, and an upgraded Australian manufacturing PMI.

The top three performers were NexGen Energy (6.31%), Mineral Resources Ltd (4.69%) and Coles Group Ltd (3.66%). BHP and Rio Tinto also posted solid gains, up about 2% for the both of them.

Traders are watching next week’s RBA meeting, where we should see a possible 25 bp rate hike to 4.35% as inflation is sticky icky.

ASX 200 Rebounds 0.74% over 1 Day But Remains Down Over 5 Days

Line chart of the ASX 200 showing a 1-day gain of 0.74% and a 5-day decline of 0.72%

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 May Seasonality Points Bullish Recovery Potential

May has been pretty decent for the ASX 200. Over the last 10 years, the Index had 6 positive results in May, with a return averaging 0.97%. That makes me think that May 2026 will be a positive one as well. So yes, the bulls have seasonal help, but the chart still has to do the real work.

ASX 200 Seasonality Illustrates May has Delivered an Average 0.97% Gain

Monthly ASX 200 performance heat map from 2016 to 2026 showing historical percentage returns by month

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Reclaims 500-SMA as May Recovery Faces Resistance Test

ASX 200 is back above the long-term 500-SMA after the sharp slide from 17th April to the end of April. It’s relieving to see the move for the Index. The Supertrend is flipped positive so it is a relatively good start for the month where the ASX 200 now has to climb all these levels of resistance to go back to all-time highs. The RSI is above 50 but the Z-Score SMA is still trending lower. This suggests that there is still some consolidation to be had for the Index.

ASX 200 15-brick Renko Holds Above the 500-SMA

15-Brick Renko of ASX 200

Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 9,230

Medium Term Path: I think that the ASX 200 is in a much better place now than it was in late-April. The move back above the 500-SMA near 8,688 and the positive Supertrend flip are good starts. Clean start to May.

But the Index still needs to prove it can hold above the 8,688–8,700 support zone and then chew through resistance around 8,826–8,847.

That’s the first real test.

If buyers clear that band, the next push toward 8,990–9,050 becomes more realistic, especially with May seasonality giving the bulls a bit of backup.

Still, I wouldn’t expect a straight sprint back to all-time highs. The Z-Score SMA is still cooling, which tells me the Index may chop, pause, and consolidate before making another serious attempt higher.

My base case is a gradual recovery path: hold above the 500-SMA, retest the 8,826–8,847 zone, then grind toward 9,000+ if the RBA doesn’t shock the market too aggressively. Lose 8,688, though, and the rebound starts looking tired again, with 8,598 back in play.