Monero Price Forecast: Eyeing $425 After Failed Resistance Breakout

Privacy tokens like Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) are experiencing strong retreats lately. Is this an early indication that the latest hype is starting to lose steam?

XMR stepped in to take some of what Zcash left on the table after its core developing team departed the Electric Coin Company (ECC) a couple of weeks ago.

Internal conflicts led to a breakup that the market quickly perceived as dangerous for Zcash’s ecosystem growth.

Trading Volumes for XMR Skyrocketed to 4-Year High

Since the year started, Monero rose from around $420 to $800 in just a few days, as trading volumes skyrocketed.

Data from Artemis shows that XMR’s weekly trading volumes rose to their highest level since May 2021.

Weekly Trading Volumes for XMR – Source: Artemis

However, the price seems to have hit a key trend line resistance and has booked losses in 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions.

Monero Retreated After Hitting Key Trend Line Resistance

A buy signal has already flashed in the daily chart. These high time frame (HFT) signals tend to be the most relevant, especially when they pop up after the price rejects a move above key resistances.

XMR/USD Daily Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView

This signals system tracks decisional candles to identify high probability trades. Right now, this daily signal is an early indication that Monero may be getting ready to retest the $425 support.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms that bearish momentum is accelerating, as it dropped below the 14-day moving average.

RSI Hits Oversold, Reversal to $560 Possible

Heading to a lower time frame, the 4-hour chart shows two consecutive sell signals. The RSI has hit oversold already, meaning that XMR could recover during the next couple of sessions as sellers take a breather.

XMR/USD 4-hour Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView

A descending price channel has formed along with a bearish price structure as a result of the latest moves. The key resistance to watch at this point would be $570. This level would provide a potentially attractive entry for a short position that offers a 4:1 risk-reward ratio.

This setup would be invalidated only if the price rises past $620 or so, as that would confirm a trend reversal. With trading volumes hitting such high levels, investors’ interest may continue to be strong as late buyers step in to buy the dip.

However, sell signals across these two high time frames provide enough technical evidence to support a bearish outlook.

MoneroSell Signals Pile Up in The Hourly Chart

Now moving to the hourly chart, the number of sell signals increases dramatically to 6, further confirming that bearish momentum dominates the price action.

XMR/USD 1-hour Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView

A bullish divergence in the RSI is an early indication that sellers may have already exhausted their ammunition. This has created a temporary floor at $480 that could act as a bouncing pad to push Monero back to $560 – the suggested entry for a short position in this case.

We have macroeconomic factors playing in favor of bears as well, namely the latest tariff threat by President Donald Trump, which was the main driver that triggered this latest downturn.

Paired with pessimistic sentiment and a strong downtrend in top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (ETH) in the past couple of days, the baseline scenario for XMR is that the downtrend will continue to unfold until hitting the low 400s after sellers take a much-needed breather.