In a volatile market, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite defy Dow Jones 30's minor dip, as disappointing ADP jobs data jolt traders.
The S&P 500 inched higher by 0.5% on Wednesday, defying the Dow Jones‘ 0.18% dip, as traders parsed a disappointing ADP jobs report that missed Dow Jones forecasts. Treasury yields, which have been hovering around multiyear highs, retreated slightly. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a modest uptick, rising by 0.39%.
While energy stocks took a hit, with Philips 66, Occidental Petroleum, Schlumberger N.V., and Devon Energy all sliding over 3%, consumer discretionary stocks emerged as the day’s winners. Etsy and Tesla led the sector, each gaining more than 2%. The contrast between the sectors comes amid falling crude prices and broader market uncertainties.
The ADP report disclosed that only 89,000 private payrolls were added last month, falling short of a projected 160,000. This comes on top of another downward trend: wages increased at a 5.9% annual rate, marking the 12th straight monthly decline. Job growth remained largely confined to the services sector, notably in leisure and hospitality, while other sectors such as manufacturing and transportation posted declines.
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.745% after crossing the 4.8% mark a day earlier. This dovetails with the ISM nonmanufacturing index, which came in at 53.6 for September, slightly below forecasts. These factors combined indicate that interest rates remain a crucial driver for equity markets.
Considering the gloomy jobs data and sectorial swings, traders should keep a close eye on economic indicators such as the upcoming weekly jobless claims and Non-Farm Payrolls reports. Given the pullback in Treasury yields and unimpressive wage growth, the short-term outlook for the market leans bearish.
With various sectors showing mixed responses to the economic indicators, understanding these nuances will be key for traders navigating the remainder of the week.
Upon verification of the calculations and data provided, the current daily price of the Nasdaq 100 Index sits at 14612.53, showing a modest gain over the previous session.
Compared to the 200-Day moving average of 13602.84, the index is trading above this longer-term indicator, generally a bullish signal. However, it is trading below the 50-Day moving average of 15132.15, indicating potential short-term weakness.
Based on available data, the market sentiment leans cautiously bullish in the longer term but shows potential vulnerability in the near term.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.