NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones, S&P 500: Weak as Moody’s Sounds Alarm on Banks

Banks Under the Microscope

Moody’s, the esteemed credit rating agency, lowered ratings for 10 banks, while keeping heavyweights like Bank of New York Mellon and U.S. Bancorp under close review. Reasons cited by Moody’s analysts Jill Cetina and Ana Arsov revolve around growing profitability pressures for banks due to rising interest rate risks and challenges in asset-liability management. Moreover, a potential mild U.S. recession in 2024 could result in asset quality declines, with commercial real estate portfolios emerging as a particular area of concern. The effects were immediately seen with shares of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, declining in premarket trading.

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

Complicating the banking landscape is the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its borrowing rate to between 5.25% and 5.5% in a move to combat inflation. According to Moody’s, this rate hike might pose further challenges to banks, particularly regional ones with lower regulatory capital. Banks’ assets, especially those fixed-rate, might feel the heat, and any onset of a recession could exacerbate these pressures.

Earnings Impacts

Aside from the banking turbulence, corporate earnings are showing promise. About 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, with a majority surpassing Wall Street expectations. However, UPS shares saw a 5.6% dip after reporting lower-than-anticipated revenue. In contrast, educational tech firm Chegg and Restaurant Brands International witnessed positive financial outcomes.

Short-term Outlook:  Cautiously Bearish

With U.S. Treasury yields adjusting and significant economic data, such as July’s consumer price index report set for release, Wall Street remains on its toes. Moody’s warning on potential risks in the banking sector, coupled with looming interest rate challenges, paints a cautious, if not bearish, short-term forecast for the financial sector.