Nasdaq 100: Oil Hits Tech as Super Micro Computer Keeps AI Bid Alive

Oil Revives Rate-Hike Fears Before Earnings

Crude oil is running the show Wednesday morning and the Nasdaq is paying for it. Brent pushed above $94 and briefly topped $95 after Secretary of State Rubio said Iran is not serious about talks. That repriced September hike odds to 70% and the growth side of the market felt it immediately. Super Micro’s $60 billion fourth-quarter order number gave the AI trade something to hold onto before the bell, but tonight is where this market gets its real answer with Tesla, Alphabet and IBM all reporting into the teeth of $95 crude.

At 12:32 GMT, Dow futures are trading 52318.00, down 125.00 or -0.24%. S&P 500 Index futures are at 7513.25, down 32.50 or -0.43%. Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading 29008.50, down 307.50 or -1.05%.

The Nasdaq is down triple the Dow and that gap widens if oil keeps climbing.

Daily September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Technical Analysis

September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the opening on Wednesday. Although it’s lower, it isn’t really falling apart. In fact, it’s sitting nestled inside yesterday’s wide range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility.

Yesterday’s high at 29364.75 is likely the price investors are eyeing for a potential breakout to the upside. This move could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the short-term retracement zone at 29754.25 to 30071.75. Inside this zone is the 50-day moving average at 29850.91. The combination of these technical points will make it an important area of interest should it be tested.

On the downside, there is a minor pivot at 28886.50 that could see some interest early. If it fails, prices could retreat to the swing bottom at 28408.25. This is where the selling pressure may get a little more serious with bearish traders likely eyeing the long-term retracement zone at 27142.25 to 26208.25 and the 200-day moving average at 26919.12.

Rubio Shut the Door on Diplomacy

Rubio’s comments came after the eleventh straight round of U.S. strikes on Iran. He said American forces will continue protecting shipping through Hormuz. The oil market heard that and ran. Brent above $94 pushed Fed funds futures hard, with July hike odds jumping to 27% and September repricing to 70%. The ceasefire trade that gave stocks a bid earlier this week is gone.

Tonight’s earnings calendar lands right into that repricing. Alphabet needs cloud revenue and search numbers that justify the AI spending, not just a bigger capex line. Tesla reports with SpaceX merger speculation still hanging over the stock and needs vehicle margins and energy revenue that can absorb tighter policy. IBM, ServiceNow and Texas Instruments round out the slate and corporate tech spending is the question for all three.

Super Micro Gave the AI Trade a Floor

Super Micro jumped 17% before the bell after reporting more than $60 billion in new fourth-quarter orders and announcing a planned AI data center with SpaceX. That is the kind of number the semiconductor group needed after two weeks of selling. Server demand, memory demand and data-center capacity are all running and the spending cycle has not stalled based on what Super Micro is seeing from its customers.

The order number matters because it arrived on the worst possible morning for growth stocks. Without it, the AI trade would have opened Wednesday with nothing to lean on except hope that tonight’s earnings deliver.

Daily SMCI Technical Analysis

Technically, the pre-market trade to $28.62 has put the stock in a position to overcome the recent swing top at $29.12. On Tuesday, the stock closed at more than 50% down from its June 2 top at $51.40, but the early call has it well above this level and Monday’s weekly low at $23.38.

A trade through $29.12 is expected to shift momentum to the upside. This move will put the 50-day moving average at $32.93 and the 200-day moving average at $33.81, back on the radar.

Given the intermediate range of $51.40 to $23.38, overtaking the moving averages could target the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $37.34 to $40.70.

Stocks in the News

AT&T jumped more than 4% in premarket after beating second-quarter estimates. SpaceX got a Falcon 9 off the pad at Cape Canaveral July 21 and is prepping Starship Flight 13 for July 23, but the stock is stuck between $123 and $135 with lock-up selling and a 20% insider unlock August 6 keeping buyers cautious.

What to Watch

Crude oil above $94 closed the door on the rate relief trade and tonight’s earnings have to overpower that or the Nasdaq stays under pressure. Rubio’s comments ended any near-term diplomatic path for oil to pull back. Super Micro proved AI demand is intact but one server maker cannot offset the macro repricing from crude. Tesla and Alphabet are the reports that determine whether the growth trade survives the week and both need numbers strong enough to absorb hike odds that doubled in three sessions.

The Nasdaq-100 is trapped inside yesterday’s range and tonight forces the resolution. A push above yesterday’s high opens the path toward the 50-day average and the retracement zone clustered around it. Failure at the lower pivot sends it back toward the swing bottom and below that the 200-day average is the next level with any real support. The direction comes tonight.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.